A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
This method may be employed again with success in geodetic operations.
We determine the length of the great arc on the surface of the earth by
triangulation, which depends upon a base measured with exactitude. But
whatever precision may be brought to the measure of the angles, the
inevitable errors can, by accumulating, cause the value of the arc
concluded from a great number of triangles to deviate appreciably from
the truth. We recognize this value, then, only imperfectly unless the
probability that its error is comprised within given limits can be
assigned. The error of a geodetic result is a function of the errors of
the angles of each triangle. I have given in the work cited general
formulæ in order to obtain the probability of the values of one or of
several linear functions of a great number of partial errors of which we
know the law of probability; we may then by means of these formulæ
determine the probability that the error of a geodetic result is
contained within the assigned limits, whatever may be the law of the
probability of partial errors. It is moreover more necessary to render
ourselves independent of the law, since the most simple laws themselves
are always infinitely less probable, seeing the infinite number of those
which may exist in nature. But the unknown law of partial errors
introduces into the formulæ an indeterminant which does not permit of
reducing them to numbers unless we are able to eliminate it. We have
seen that in astronomical questions, where each observation furnishes an
equation of condition for obtaining the elements, we eliminate this
determinant by means of the sum of the squares of the remainders when
the most probable values of the elements have been substituted in each
equation. Geodetic questions not offering similar equations, it is
necessary to seek another means of elimination. The quantity by which
the sum of the angles of each observed triangle surpasses two right
angles plus the spherical excess furnishes this means. Thus we replace
by the sum of the squares of these quantities the sum of the squares of
the remainders of the equations of condition; and we may assign in
numbers the probability that the error of the final result of a series
of geodetic operations will not exceed a given quantity. But what is the
most advantageous manner of dividing among the three angles of each
triangle the observed sum of their errors? The analysis of probabilities
renders it apparent that each angle ought to be diminished by a third of
this sum, provided that the weight of a geodetic result be the greatest
possible, which renders the same error less probable. There is then a
great advantage in observing the three angles of each triangle and of
correcting them as we have just said. Simple common sense indicates this
advantage; but the calculation of probabilities alone is able to
appreciate it and to render apparent that by this correction it becomes
the greatest possible.
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