A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities — John Shaqi
A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
observed by Mayer in the equation of the precession applicable to the
moon. The quantity of this diminution and the coefficient of the
preceding inequality in latitude are very appropriate to fix the
oblateness of the earth. Having communicated my researches to M. Burg,
who was occupied at that time in perfecting the tables of the moon by
the comparison of all the good observations, I requested him to
determine with a particular care these two quantities. By a very
remarkable agreement the values which he has found give to the earth the
same oblateness, 1/305, which differs little from the mean derived from
the measurements of the degrees of the meridian and the pendulum; but
those regarded from the point of view of the influence of the errors of
the observations and of the perturbing causes in these measurements, did
not appear to me exactly determined by these lunar inequalities.
It was again by the consideration of probabilities that I recognized the
cause of the secular equation of the moon. The modern observations of
this star compared to the ancient eclipses had indicated to astronomers
an acceleration in the lunar movement; but the geometricians, and
particularly Lagrange, having vainly sought in the perturbations which
this movement experienced the terms upon which this acceleration
depends, reject it. An attentive examination of the ancient and modern
observations and of the intermediary eclipses observed by the Arabians
convinced me that it was indicated with a great probability. I took up
again then from this point of view the lunar theory, and I recognized
that the secular equation of the moon is due to the action of the sun
upon this satellite, combined with the secular variation of the
eccentricity of the terrestrial orb; this brought me to the discovery of
the secular equations of the movements of the nodes and of the perigees
of the lunar orbit, which equations had not been even suspected by
astronomers. The very remarkable agreement of this theory with all the
ancient and modern observations has brought it to a very high degree of
evidence.
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