Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, October 1899: Vol. LV, May to October, 1899Various
Philosophy
Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, October 1899: Vol. LV, May to October, 1899
Various
Science -- Periodicals; Technology -- Periodicals
The value of the various calculations that statisticians indulge in is
largely discounted by the fact that allowance is rarely made for
changing conditions. Such has been the ratio, such is the ratio, and
therefore in so many years' time such will be the ratio, is the burden
of their calculations, so that while their figures for the past and
present may be both correct and instructive, their calculations for
the future are frequently of little practical utility; and it is this
failure to allow for any variation in conditions that renders Mr.
Davis's figures of so little value, and Sir W. Crookes's conclusions,
which are based on them, of no greater importance.
It is surprising to find how much value Sir W. Crookes attaches to Mr.
Davis's figures, and it leads one to the conclusion that he has either
not examined them very closely, or shares with Mr. Davis a fondness
for "purely speculative computations"; and while it is not seemly to
accuse, as has been done, a man of Sir W. Crookes's standing and
reputation of resorting to "bucket-shop" methods to support his
conclusions, it is difficult to avoid thinking that the anxiety to
establish those conclusions has not only led him to accept Mr. Davis's
calculations without proper examination, but has also influenced the
preparation of some of his antecedent data and led him to subordinate
facts as a means to a required end. Since Sir W. Crookes thinks so
highly of Mr. Davis's figures and upon them has based some of the most
important conclusions of his address, and as Mr. Davis himself is so
ready to find fault with the calculations of others, it might be well
just here to see how some of Mr. Davis's own calculations have been
verified and what amount of dependence should be placed upon his
figures or on deductions from them.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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