A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
In a forecast like the present it is impossible to avoid a certain
amount of overlapping in different sections of the subject and
a certain blending of topics in a single chapter. The attempt to
differentiate consistently between the progress of science as science,
and the concurrent advance of practical invention by which scientific
discovery is turned to use would only involve needless repetition. I
have already had occasion to suggest elements of material progress
which presuppose the advance in pure science that would make them
possible. Thus, in endeavouring to suggest what the methods of commerce
and the condition of our cities are likely to be in the future it
was necessary to conceive certain advances in our knowledge of what
is rather clumsily called "wireless" telegraphy, and to predict
the discovery of new and cheap methods of analysing water into its
component gases as a source of fuel and as means for the production
of electricity: and in order to avoid useless repetition it was found
convenient to work out in a rough manner the various ways in which the
cheap and inexhaustible supplies of hydrogen and oxygen which I have
imagined discovery to have placed at the disposal of invention would
be employed in the arts. Similarly, when we interrogate imagination
on the subject of scientific discovery itself, we shall be forced to
think chiefly of the practical results likely to be achieved by it,
and indeed there would otherwise be hardly any purpose to serve by
the effort. What imports the greatest amount of complexity into the
subject is the difficulty of conceiving the lines upon which science
is likely to travel, unless we allow ourselves to be guided by the
practical requirements of the future as far as we are able to foresee
them. Imagination has indeed superabundant room in which to run riot
when it endeavours to give form to the probabilities of scientific
discovery; and the only danger is that effort may be wasted in purely
fanciful directions, if it be not pretty securely tied down by some
such artificial restraint as the convention of keeping more or less
strictly to the anticipation of discoveries likely to have immediate
practical application.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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