A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
It was entirely confirmed by the result of this
calculation, which moreover made me recognize a great number of other
inequalities of which the totality has inclined the tables of Jupiter
and Saturn to the precision of the same observations.
It was again by means of the calculus of probabilities that I recognized
the remarkable law of the mean movements of the three first satellites
of Jupiter, according to which the mean longitude of the first minus
three times that of the second plus two times that of the third is
rigorously equal to the half-circumference. The approximation with which
the mean movements of these stars satisfy this law since their discovery
indicates its existence with an extreme probability. I sought then the
cause of it in their mutual action. The searching examination of this
action convinced me that it was sufficient if in the beginning the
ratios of their mean movements had approached this law within certain
limits, because their mutual action had established and maintained it
rigorously. Thus these three bodies will balance one another eternally
in space according to the preceding law unless strange causes, such as
comets, should change suddenly their movements about Jupiter.
Accordingly it is seen how necessary it is to be attentive to the
indications of nature when they are the result of a great number of
observations, although in other respects they may be inexplicable by
known means. The extreme difficulty of problems relative to the system
of the world has forced geometricians to recur to the approximation
which always leaves room for the fear that the quantities neglected may
have an appreciable influence. When they have been warned of this
influence by the observations, they have recurred to their analysis; in
rectifying it they have always found the cause of the anomalies
observed; they have determined the laws and often they have anticipated
the observations in discovering the inequalities which it had not yet
indicated. Thus one may say that nature itself has concurred in the
analytical perfection of the theories based upon the principle of
universal gravity; and this is to my mind one of the strongest proofs of
the truth of this admirable principle.
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