A Quantitative Study of the Nocturnal Migration of BirdsLowery, George H., Jr.
Science
A Quantitative Study of the Nocturnal Migration of Birds
Lowery, George H., Jr.
Birds -- Migration
May 12-13 should have preceded that of the peak on May 13-14; whereas
his figure shows the reverse to have been true. Singularly enough,
Winkenwerder recognized this difficulty in his treatment of the data
from Madison, Wisconsin. Unable to correlate the peak period with the
Madison terrain by the approach used for Beloit, he plotted the
observations in terms of hours after moonrise instead of standard
time. This procedure was entirely correct; the moon does reach
approximately the same position at each hour after its rise on
successive nights. The surprising thing is that Winkenwerder did not
seem to realize the incompatibility of his two approaches or to
realize that he was simply choosing the method to suit the desired
results.
Furthermore, as shown in Part I of this paper, the number of birds
seen through the telescope often has only an indirect connection with
the actual number of birds passing over. My computations reveal that
the highest counts of birds at Beloit on May 12-13 were recorded when
the moon was at an altitude of only 8° to 15° and, that when
appropriate allowance is made for the immense size of the field of
observation at this time, the partially corrected flight density for
the period is not materially greater than at some other intervals in
the night when the telescope was not directed over the course of the
Rock River. These allowances do not take the direction factor into
consideration. Had the birds been flying at right angles to the short
axis of an elliptical section of the cone throughout the night, the
flight density in the period Winkenwerder considered the peak would
have been about twice as high as in any previous interval. On the
other hand, if they had been flying across the long axis at all times,
the supposed peak would be decidedly inferior to the flight density at
10 to 11:00 P. M., before the cone came near the river.
Admittedly, these considerations contain a tremendous element of
uncertainty. They are of value only because they expose the equal
uncertainty in Winkenwerder's basic evidence. Since the coördinates of
the birds' apparent pathways at Beloit were given, I at first
entertained the hope of computing the flight densities rigorously, by
the method herein employed. Unfortunately, Winkenwerder was apparently
dealing with telescopes that gave inverted images, and he used a
system for recording coördinates so ambiguously described that I am
not certain I have deciphered its true meaning. When, however, his
birds are plotted according to the instructions as he stated them, the
prevailing direction of flight indicated by the projection formula
falls close to west-northwest, not along the course of the Rock River,
but _at direct right angles to it_.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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