A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
For the assessment of the Reparation Commission it was necessary to
convert this claim from paper francs into gold marks. The rate to be
adopted for this purpose was the subject of acute controversy. On the
basis of the actual rate of exchange prevailing at that date (April
1921) the gold mark was worth about 3.25 paper francs. The French
representatives claimed that this depreciation was temporary and
that a permanent settlement ought not to be based on it. They asked,
therefore, for a rate of about frs. 1.50 or frs. 1.75 to the gold
mark.[65] The question was eventually submitted to the arbitration of
Mr. Boyden, the American member of the Reparation Commission, who,
like most arbitrators, took a middle course and decided that 2.20
paper francs should be deemed equivalent to 1 gold mark.[66] He would
probably have found it difficult to give a reason for this decision.
As regards that part of the claim which was in respect of pensions, a
forecast of the gold value of the franc, however impracticable, was
relevant. But as regards that part which was in respect of material
damage, no such adjustment was necessary[67]; for the French claim had
been drawn up on the basis of the current costs of reconstruction, the
gold equivalent of which need not be expected to rise with an increase
in the gold value of the franc, an improvement in the exchange being
balanced sooner or later by a fall in franc prices. It might have been
proper to make allowance for any premium existing, at the date of the
assessment, on the internal purchasing power of the franc over that of
its external exchange–equivalent in gold. But in April 1921 the franc
was not far from its proper “purchasing power parity,” and I calculate
that on this basis it would have been approximately accurate to have
equated the gold mark with 3 paper francs. The rate of 2.20 had the
effect, therefore, of inflating the French claim against Germany very
materially.
At this rate the claim of 127 milliard paper francs for material damage
was equivalent to 57.7 milliard gold marks, of which the chief items
were as follows:
──────────────────────┬───────────────┬─────────────
│Francs (paper),│Marks (Gold),
│ millions. │ millions.
──────────────────────┼───────────────┼─────────────
Industrial damages │ 38,882 │ 17,673
Damage to houses │ 36,892 │ 16,768
Furniture and fittings│ 25,119 │ 11,417
Unbuilt-on land │ 21,671 │ 9,850
State property │ 1,958 │ 890
Public works │ 2,583 │ 1,174
├───────────────┼─────────────
Total │ 127,105 │ 57,772
──────────────────────┴───────────────┴─────────────
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