Now, the distance of Charleston from the Woodstock epicentre is
sixteen miles, and from the corresponding focus (with the calculated
value of its depth) twenty miles. A first estimate of the velocity
gives a value of a little more than three miles a second, and the time
at the Woodstock focus may therefore be taken as 9h. 51m. 6s. with a
probable error of a few seconds.[44]
Proceeding to the observations at a distance, we find them, even after
all rejections, to be very different in value. They were therefore
divided into groups consisting of observations which are as nearly as
possible homogeneous.
The first group contains five records from places between 452 and 645
miles from the Woodstock epicentre. They give the time to within 15
seconds, obtained from an accurately kept clock, or from a clock or
watch that was compared with such within a few hours of the
earthquake. The resulting velocity is 3.236 plus or minus .105 miles
(or 5205 plus or minus 168 meters) per second.[45]
In the second group there are eleven observations (between distances
of 438 and 770 miles) which satisfy the same conditions as those in
the first group, except that the time is only given to the nearest
minute or half-minute. The velocity obtained from them is 3.226 plus
or minus .147 miles (or 5192 plus or minus 236 metres) per second.
The third group included all but the above records and those obtained
from stopped clocks. They are 125 in number (between distances of 80
and 924 miles), but it is uncertain whether they correspond to the
selected phase of the movement, and the errors of the clocks and
watches used were unknown. They give a mean velocity of 3.013 plus or
minus .027 miles (or 4848 plus or minus 43 metres) per second.
In the fourth group, we have the evidence of 45 stopped clocks (at
places between 20 and 855 miles), which apparently give a velocity of
2.638 plus or minus .105 miles (or 4245 plus or minus .168 metres) per
second. At six places, however, the times indicated by stopped clocks
can be compared with good personal observations; and these show that
the time of traverse from the origin obtained from the former is on an
average 1.28 times the time of traverse obtained from the latter. If a
similar correction be made for all the stopped clocks, the corrected
velocity of the earth-waves would be from 3.17 to 3.23 miles (or 5100
to 5200 metres) per second.
In obtaining the mean value of the velocity from all the observations,
those of the fourth group are omitted, and the weights of the first
three groups are taken inversely as the squares of the probable
errors--that is, as 2: 1: 4. The resulting mean velocity is 3.221 plus
or minus .050 miles (or 5184 plus or minus 80 metres) per second; and,
though it does not follow that all other estimates are erroneous (for
the velocity may vary with the strength of the earthquake and with
other conditions), it is probable that this result is more nearly
accurate than any other previously obtained.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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