In the case of France the curves are together at the end of 1919,
diverge in 1920, come together again in the middle of 1921, and keep
together until a divergence occurred again in the latter part of 1922.
For Italy, rather unexpectedly perhaps, the relationship is
extraordinarily steady, although here, as in the case of France and
Great Britain, there are indications that the war may have resulted
in a slight lowering of the equilibrium point, by (say) 10 per
cent;[30]--the parity, calculated with 1913 as the base year, has been
almost invariably somewhat above the actual rate of exchange. The
Italian curve illustrates in a remarkable way the manner in which the
external and internal purchasing powers of the currency fall together,
when the main influence at work is a progressive depreciation due to
currency inflation.
[30] The use of any of the other Italian index numbers would
have accentuated this indication. The table of American
prices given on p. 94 above confirms the suggestion that
the “equation of exchange” between the U.S. and the rest of
the world as a whole has moved, say, 10 per cent in favour
of the former.
The broad effect of these curves and tables is to give substantial
inductive support to the general theory outlined above, even under such
abnormal conditions as have existed since the Armistice. During this
period the movements of the relative price level in France and Italy
due to monetary inflation have been so much larger than any shifting
in the “equation of exchange” (a movement of more than 10 or 20 per
cent in which would be startling) that their foreign exchanges have
been much more influenced by their internal price policy in relation
to the internal price policies of other countries than by any other
factor; with the result that the Purchasing Power Parity Theory, even
in its crude form, has worked passably well.
GREAT BRITAIN AND THE UNITED STATES
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