In the charts and tables below, the actual results are worked out of
applying the theory to the exchange value of sterling, francs, and lire
in terms of dollars since 1919. The figures show that, quantitatively
speaking, the influences, which detract from the precision of the
purchasing power parity theory, have been in these cases small, on the
whole, as compared with those which function in accord with it. There
seems to have been some disturbance in the “equations of exchange”
since 1913,--which would probably show up more distinctly if it were
not that the index numbers employed in the following enquiry are
of the type which is largely built up from articles entering into
international trade. Nevertheless general price changes, affecting
all commodities more or less equally, due to currency inflation or
deflation, have been so dominant in their influence that the theory
has been actually applicable with remarkable accuracy. In the case,
however, of such countries as Germany, where the shocks to equilibrium
have been much more violent in many respects, the concordance between
the purchasing power parity based on 1913 and the actual rate of
exchange has suffered, whether temporarily or permanently, very great
disturbance.
The first of these charts, which deals with the value of sterling
in terms of dollars, shows that whilst the purchasing power parity,
calculated with 1913 as base, is often somewhat above the actual
exchange, there is a persevering tendency for the two to come together.
The two curves are within one point of each other in September-November
1919, March-April 1920, April 1921, September 1921, January-June 1922,
and February-June 1923, which is certainly a remarkable illustration
of the tendency to concordance between the purchasing power parity
and the rate of exchange. On inductive grounds it would be tempting
to conclude from this chart that the financial consequences of the
war have depressed the equilibrium of the purchasing power parity of
sterling as against the dollar from 1 to 2½ per cent since 1913, if it
were not that this figure barely exceeds the margin of error resulting
from the choice of one pair of index numbers rather than another from
amongst those available.[29] It will be interesting to see what effect
is produced by the payment, just commenced, of the interest on the
American debt.
[29] Nevertheless, if I had used the Board of Trade or the
_Statist_ index number in place of the _Economist_ index
number in the table below, the presumption of a slight
worsening of the “equation of index” against Great Britain
would be somewhat strengthened.
This chart brings out clearly, as also do those for France and
Italy, the susceptibility of the foreign exchange rates to seasonal
influences, whereas the purchasing power parity is naturally less
affected by them.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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