“That,” said Severne, “I deny. It is more than balanced by the right the
players have of doubling, till they gain, and by the maturity of the
chances: I will explain this to the ladies. You see experience proves
that neither red nor black can come up more than nine times running.
When, therefore, either color has come up four times, you can put a
moderate stake on the other color, and double on it till it _must_ come,
by the laws of nature. Say red has turned four times. You put a napoleon
on black; red gains. You lose a napoleon. You don't remove it, but double
on it. The chances are now five to one you gain: but if you lose, you
double on the same, and, when you have got to sixteen napoleons, the
color must change; uniformity has reached its physical limit. That is
called the maturity of the chances. Begin as unluckily as possible with
five francs, and lose. If you have to double eight times before you win,
it only comes to twelve hundred and eighty francs. Given, therefore, a
man to whom fifty napoleons are no more than five francs to us, he can
never lose if he doubles, like a Trojan, till the chances are mature.
This is called 'the Martingale:' but, observe, it only secures against
loss. Heavy gains are made by doubling judiciously on the _winning_
color, or by simply betting on short runs of it. When red comes up, back
red, and double twice on it. Thus you profit by the remarkable and
observed fact that colors do not, as a rule, alternate, but reach
ultimate equality by avoiding alternation, and making short runs, with
occasional long runs; the latter are rare, and must be watched with a
view to the balancing run of the other color. This is my system.”
“And you really think you have invented it?” asked Vizard.
“I am not so conceited. My system was communicated to me, in the Kursaal
itself--by an old gentleman.”
_“An_ old gentleman, or _the_--?”
“Oh, Harrington,” cried Zoe, “fie!”
“My wit is appreciated at its value. Proceed, Ned.”
Severne told him, a little defiantly, it was an old gentleman, with a
noble head, a silvery beard, and the most benevolent countenance he ever
saw.
“Curious place for his reverence to be in,” hazarded Vizard.
“He saw me betting, first on the black, then on the red, till I was
cleaned out, and then he beckoned me.”
“Not a man of premature advice anyway.”
“He told me he had observed my play. I had been relying on the
alternations of the colors, which alternation chance persistently avoids,
and arrives at equality by runs. He then gave me a better system.”
“And, having expounded his system, he illustrated it? Tell the truth now;
he sat down and lost the coat off his back? It followed his family
acres.”
“You are quite wrong again. He never plays. He has heart-disease, and his
physician has forbidden him all excitement.”
“His nation?”
“Humph! French.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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