As an average of the fourteen years from 1903 to 1916, inclusive, heavy hog prices at Chicago averaged in January, $6.54; February, $6.83; March, $7.22; April, $7.30; May, $7.10; June, $7.10; July, $7.18; August, $7.14; September, $7.29; October, $7.08; November, $6.65; December, $6.55; average for the entire year, $7. On this basis, January is 93 per cent of the yearly average; February, 98 per cent; March, 103 per cent; April, 104 per cent; May, 101 per cent; June, 101 per cent; July, 103 per cent; August, 102 per cent; September, 104 per cent; October, 101 per cent; November, 95 per cent, and December, 94 per cent. The December average for 1902–1915 is $6.30, or 90 per cent. Obviously, the seasonal variation as just stated in percentages is affected to some extent by the secular trend, for the Decembers of 1902–1915 average 90 per cent, and those of 1903–1916 average 94 per cent. Taking the secular trend out of our seasonal, or adding 2 points to the early months of the year and subtracting 2 points from the last months of the year, we get approximately: January, 95; February, 99; March, 104; April, 105; May, 102; June, 101; July, 103; August, 102; September, 103; October, 100; November, 94, and December, 92.[6] Hog receipts at Chicago, in the same manner, have a modified seasonal factor of January, 132 per cent; February, 117 per cent; March, 102 per cent; April, 85 per cent; May, 99 per cent; June, 99 per cent; July, 87 per cent; August, 87 per cent; September, 74 per cent; October, 86 per cent; November, 103 per cent; December, 129 per cent. For bank clearings outside of New York City, the modified seasonal factors are: January, 109; February, 93; March, 104; April, 100; May, 99; June, 97; July, 98; August, 90; September, 93; October, 108; November, 103, and December, 106. After securing normal seasonal variation, the next step is to modify secular trend for seasonal variation. Secular trend of hog prices, as modified seasonally, is portrayed in Chart II. The secular trend price of hogs in January, 1903, is $5.19, which sum, multiplied by the seasonal factor 96, gives $4.98 as the secular price of hogs modified seasonally for January, 1903. The actual price was $6.60, or $1.62 above the secular modified seasonally, or 31 per cent greater than the secular price of $5.19. In this way the percentage of departure for each month from 1903 thru 1916 may be figured. This has been done for hog prices, hog receipts and bank clearings outside of New York City.[7]