Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, April 1899: Volume LIV, No. 6, April 1899Various
Science
Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, April 1899: Volume LIV, No. 6, April 1899
Various
Science -- Periodicals; Technology -- Periodicals
On one point to which Mr. Hyde refers I must cry _peccavi_. He rebukes
the editor of the Popular Science Monthly for admitting an article in
which a potential of 400,000,000 bushels of wheat is attributed to the
State of Idaho. The total depravity of the type-writing machine caused
the mechanism to spell Montana in the letters I-d-a-h-o. What I
imputed to Idaho is true of Montana, if the Chief of the Agricultural
Experiment Stations of Montana is a competent witness, if all its
arable land were devoted to wheat. It will be observed that I
mentioned Idaho incidentally (meaning Montana), taking no cognizance
of the estimate given, because it was at present of no practical
importance.
I have expressed my distrust of great averages in respect to
agriculture and farm products.
In illustration of this fallacy, the figures presented by Mr. Hyde
will now be dealt with. It is held that in 1930, which is the year
when Sir William Crookes predicts starvation among the bread-eating
people of the world for lack of wheat (as if good bread could only be
made from wheat), the population of this country may be computed at
130,000,000. The requirements of that year for our own consumption Mr.
Hyde estimates at 700,000,000 bushels of wheat, 1,250,000,000 bushels
of oats, 3,450,000,000 bushels of corn (maize), and 100,000,000 tons
of hay; and, although other products are not named by him, we may
assume a corresponding increase.
Subsequently Mr. Hyde gives the present delusive average yields per
acre of the whole country, and then throws a doubt on the future
progress of agricultural science, saying, "Whatever agricultural
science may be able to do in the next thirty years, up to the present
time it has only succeeded in arresting that decline in the rate of
production with which we have been continually threatened." Without
dealing at present with this want of and true consideration of or
"speculation" upon the progress made in the last decade under the lead
of the experiment stations and other beginnings in remedying the
wasteful and squalid methods that have been so conspicuous in pioneer
farming, let us take Mr. Hyde's averages and see what demand upon land
the requirements of 1930 will make, even at the present meager average
product per acre.
Mr. Hyde apparently computes this prospective product as one that will
be required for the domestic consumption of 130,000,000 people by
ratio to our present product. He ignores the fact that our present
product suffices for 75,000,000, with an excess of live stock,
provisions, and dairy products exported nearly equal in value to all
the grain exported, and in excess of the exports of wheat. If we can
increase proportionally in one class of products, why not in another?
Whichever pays best will be produced and exported.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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