Analysts and commentators thought of the stock exchange
as decoupled from the real economy. Only one tenth of
the population was invested - compared to 40 percent
today. "The World" wrote, with more than a bit of
Schadenfreude: "The country has not suffered a
catastrophe ... The American people ... has been gambling
largely with the surplus of its astonishing prosperity."
"The Daily News" concurred: "The sagging of the stocks
has not destroyed a single factory, wiped out a single farm
or city lot or real estate development, decreased the
productive powers of a single workman or machine in the
United States." In Louisville, the "Herald Post"
commented sagely: "While Wall Street was getting rid of
its weak holder to their own most drastic punishment,
grain was stronger. That will go to the credit side of the
national prosperity and help replace that buying power
which some fear has been gravely impaired".
During the Coolidge presidency, according to the
Encyclopedia Britannica, "stock dividends rose by 108
percent, corporate profits by 76 percent, and wages by 33
percent. In 1929, 4,455,100 passenger cars were sold by
American factories, one for every 27 members of the
population, a record that was not broken until 1950.
Productivity was the key to America's economic growth.
Because of improvements in technology, overall labour
costs declined by nearly 10 percent, even though the
wages of individual workers rose".
Jude Waninski adds in his tome "The Way the World
Works" that "between 1921 and 1929, GNP grew to
$103.1 billion from $69.6 billion. And because prices
were falling, real output increased even faster." Tax rates
were sharply reduced.
John Kenneth Galbraith noted these data in his seminal
"The Great Crash":
"Between 1925 and 1929, the number of manufacturing
establishments increased from 183,900 to 206,700; the
value of their output rose from $60.8 billions to $68
billions. The Federal Reserve index of industrial
production which had averaged only 67 in 1921 ... had
risen to 110 by July 1928, and it reached 126 in June 1929
... (but the American people) were also displaying an
inordinate desire to get rich quickly with a minimum of
physical effort".
Personal borrowing for consumption peaked in 1928 -
though the administration, unlike today, maintained twin
fiscal and current account surpluses and the USA was a
large net creditor.
Charles Kettering, head of the research division of
General Motors described consumeritis thus, just days
before the crash: "The key to economic prosperity is the
organized creation of dissatisfaction".
Inequality skyrocketed. While output per man-hour shot
up by 32 percent between 1923 and 1929, wages crept up
only 8 percent. In 1929, the top 0.1 percent of the
population earned as much as the bottom 42 percent.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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