Will a stock market crash, should it happen, be followed
by another "Great Depression"? It depends which kind of
crash. The short term puncturing of a temporary bubble -
e.g., in 1962 and 1987 - is usually divorced from other
economic fundamentals. But a major correction to a
lasting bull market invariably leads to recession or worse.
As the economist Hernan Cortes Douglas reminds us in
"The Collapse of Wall Street and the Lessons of History"
published by the Friedberg Mercantile Group, this was the
sequence in London in 1720 (the infamous "South Sea
Bubble"), and in the USA in 1835-40 and 1929-32.
IV. Britain's Real Estate
The five ghastly "Jack the Ripper" murders took place in
an area less than a quarter square mile in size. Houses in
this haunting and decrepit no man's land straddling the
City and metropolitan London could be had for 25-50,000
British pounds as late as a decade ago. How things
change!
The general buoyancy in real estate prices in the capital
coupled with the adjacent Spitalfields urban renewal
project have lifted prices. A house not 50 yards from the
scene of the Ripper's last - and most ghoulish - slaying
now sells for over 1 million pounds. In central London,
one bedroom apartments retail for an outlandish half a
million.
According to research published in September 2002 by
Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage lender, the number of
1 million pound homes sold has doubled in 1999-2002 to
2600. By 2002, it has increased elevenfold since 1995.
According to The Economist's house price index, prices
rose by a further 15.6% in 2003, 10.2% in 2004 and a
whopping 147% in total since 1997. In Greater London,
one in every 90 homes fetches even a higher price. The
average UK house now costs 100,000 pounds. In the
USA, the ratios of house prices to rents and to median
income are at historic highs.
One is reminded of the Japanese boast, at the height of
their realty bubble, that the grounds of the royal palace in
Tokyo are worth more than the entire real estate of
Manhattan. Is Britain headed the same way?
A house - much like a Big Mac - is a basket of raw
materials, goods, and services. But, unlike the Big Mac -
and the purchasing power index it spawned - houses are
also investment vehicles and stores of value. They yield
often tax exempt capital gains, rental income, or benefits
from occupying them (rent payments saved). Real estate is
used to hedge against inflation, save for old age, and
speculate. Prices of residential and commercial property
reflect scarcity, investment fads, and changing moods.
Homeowners in both the UK and the USA - spurred on by
aggressive marketing and the lowest interest rates in 30
years - have been refinancing old, more expensive,
mortgages and heavily borrowing against their "equity" -
i.e., against the meteoric rise in the market prices of their
abodes.
According to the Milken Institute in Los Angeles, asset
bubbles tend to both enhance and cannibalize each other.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account