The absence of the Irish might, of course, have various grounds. It was quite possible that the wireless message announcing our coming had arrived in a mutilated condition, or that it had been badly deciphered, and that either for this or for the previous reason it had been obscure if not wholly unintelligible. It was also possible that the code-word which it had been agreed to insert in the German wireless news, just before the evening military communique, as a sign to the Irish[13] that our expedition had started, had been accidentally omitted, and the Irish had consequently thought that something had occurred to prevent our coming. But it seemed to me on the whole, much more probable that the Irish of the west had not been content to look on idly at the activity of their brethren on the east coast, and had also themselves started disturbances, which had led to the proclamation of martial law on the west coast also. As I have mentioned earlier, this had been suggested to me by a paragraph in the papers before I left Berlin. If the Irish had really committed this folly, my task would be rendered immensely more difficult, if not impossible, for it might be taken as certain that a number of the Sinn Feiners concerned would be already under arrest, and that the English would at least have got wind of our intended landing. That might account for the sudden appearance of the battery which we had passed shortly before. But where was Casement all this time? Was he already in Ireland, and perhaps already arrested, or was he still on a submarine which had not yet arrived? Here, too, there were all kinds of possibilities. The submarine might have had an accident and turned back; or bad weather, or engine trouble, might have delayed the voyage. Again, it was not impossible that the submarine with Casement on board had already been here, and after finding how the land lay had gone back some distance to meet us--perhaps to warn us. In the latter case it might be assumed that towards evening the submarine would again return to the rendezvous. There were certainly possibilities enough to keep one guessing, but I felt pretty sure that the Irish in the west had broken out prematurely, and the English, in consequence, had taken measures to deal with our plan, as well as with the Irish rising. Assuming, then, as the most probable hypothesis, that the principal leaders including, perhaps, Casement himself, had been arrested, but that those who remained would make an effort to carry out the plan as best they could. It seemed most likely that they would wait for nightfall before attempting to communicate with me. I had abandoned the idea of leaving the bay again, and returning after dark, as being too suspicious a manoeuvre. On the other hand, to continue to lie here indefinitely would also be likely to awaken suspicion. I therefore decided to explore the inner part of the bay.