Surplus gold from Egypt is not capable of undercutting Council Bills
so seriously as surplus gold from Australia; for in this case it
is Egypt which lies between. If we assume, for the sake of precise
illustration,[57] that the cost of sending gold from Egypt to London is
nearly the same as that of sending it from Egypt to India, an Egyptian
bank, about to ship sovereigns in any case, will take any price in
excess of 1s. 4d.[58] paid in London for the delivery in India of the
value in gold of a rupee. This is the extreme case. If Council Bills
are at a higher rate than 1s. 4d., say at 1s. 4–1/16d., the Alexandrian
exchanges may be at a level which makes it profitable to ship gold from
Egypt to India for payment in London, when it is not profitable to ship
gold from Egypt to London. If we still make the above illustrative (but
not exactly accurate) assumption, when Council Bills are at about 1s.
4–1/16d. and the Alexandrian exchange on London below par, Egyptian
gold competes with Councils as a means of remittance to India. Of
course the supply of remittance from this source is usually somewhat
limited; when some Egyptian gold has flowed away to India under the
influence of the above conditions, this is likely to have the effect
of strengthening the Alexandrian exchange, and therefore, by modifying
the conditions, of making the continuance of a flow less likely. The
Egyptian gold is of great practical importance, because the busy season
in Egypt comes rather earlier than the busy season in India, so that in
the winter months the gold which has served the purpose of moving the
crops in Egypt can be sent on to be changed into rupees which are to
serve the same purpose in India. Of the gold, therefore, which flows
from London to Egypt every autumn, very little finds its way back again
to London; what is not kept by the cultivators in Egypt travels on in
due course to India. The precise moment at which this movement takes
place and its extent depend, as we have seen above, on the rate at
which Council Bills are being sold in London, and also upon whether
the Egyptian cotton crop is dealt with late or early. But when towards
the end of their busy season the Egyptian banks find themselves with
more gold than they need, Council Bills must be sold at a relatively
low rate if the flow of this gold to India is to be prevented. The
dealings between the Egyptian and the Indian banks must thus present
very delicate problems of arbitrage.
It is probably within the power of the Secretary of State, if he
wishes, to regulate the flow of gold direct from London to Bombay by
means of the sales of Council Bills. But when gold is available in
Australia or Egypt, the matter is not susceptible of such easy control.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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