Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Seven weeks of the 1920 epidemic in Detroit killed 0.20 per cent. of the
population, two out of every one thousand people. A similar period at
the beginning of the epidemic of 1918 witnessed the death of 0.17 per
cent. of the population. This was a smaller number, but the epidemic at
this time had not completed its course, and continued to be more or less
prevalent for twenty-one weeks, resulting finally in the death of 0.28
per cent. of the population. The recurrent epidemic was more highly
fatal, but, being of shorter duration, Detroit actually suffered less
from it.
SPREAD IN COUNTRIES AND CONTINENTS.
The spread of influenza is usually not limited to a single community.
Almost invariably it will travel on to another locality, carried thither
by human intercourse, and will there build again a local epidemiologic
picture more or less modified by changes in the environment and changes
in the virulence of the virus itself.
_Spread, in primary waves._—Reference to the table of epidemics in
history will show that in many of the epidemics and in most of the
widespread epidemics and pandemics there appears to have been a
definite, clearcut, direction of spread from one locality to others. In
the recent literature there has appeared considerable discussion
concerning the site of origin, the endemic focus of pandemic influenza.
Briefly the question raised is as to whether there are single or
multiple foci. We will for the time ignore this perplexing question. In
either case, after the influenza virus has once attained such
communicability as to produce a pandemic it does follow a direct course
over countries and continents. This may be followed in resumé in our
table.
The disease does not at any time spread more rapidly than the available
speed of human communication between the areas affected. If influenza
does appear simultaneously in two widely separated communities without
having been brought there from a common source it must be that it arose
spontaneously from simultaneous increase in virulence of the virus in
those localities.
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