Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
or, lastly, to a number of tons, not much, if at all, exceeding 100
millions?
The answer of the Commissioners comes in no doubtful terms. Judging
from the consumption during the four years ending in 1870, the
estimated consumption for the year 1872 is no less than 115 millions,
an amount approaching Mr. Jevons’s estimate much more nearly than
could be desired. Indeed, if we consider the imperfect nature of the
statistics on which he founded his calculations, the agreement between
his estimate and the observed result must be regarded as surprisingly
close. Remembering the conclusion to which Mr. Jevons came with respect
to the period for which our coal stores would last, and noticing the
close agreement thus far between his anticipations and the result,
we can well understand the warning tone of the report issued by the
Commissioners. ‘Every hypothesis,’ they say, ‘must be speculative, but
it is certain that if the present rate of increase in the consumption
of coal be indefinitely continued, even in an approximate degree, the
progress towards the exhaustion of our coal will be very rapid.’ Let
it be remembered that the Commission was issued at the instance of
those who took the more sanguine view, and that it included within
its ranks such eminent authorities as Sir William Armstrong, Sir
Robert Murchison, Professor Ramsay, Mr. John Hunt, and others of like
experience in the subject under inquiry.
If, in the next place, we compare Mr. Jevons’s estimate of the
quantity of coal available for use with the result obtained by the
Commissioners, we find little to restore our confidence in the extent
of time during which our coal stores may be expected to last. We have
seen that 200,000 millions of tons had been supposed to be available;
but the Commissioners find that ‘we now have an aggregate of 146,480
millions of tons, which may be reasonably expected to be available
for use.’ Again, it had been supposed that our coal mines could be
worked to a depth of 4,000 feet, or to an even greater depth. ‘The
difficulties in the way of deep mining,’ wrote Mr. Lemoran in 1866,
‘are mere questions of cost. It is important to notice that the
assumption of 4,000 feet as the greatest depth to which coal can be
worked, on account of the increase of temperature, is purely voluntary.
The increase has been calculated at a rate for which there is no
authority; and while we are saying our coal-beds cannot be worked below
4,000 feet, a colliery in Belgium has nearly approached that depth, and
no inconvenience is experienced by the miners.’ But the Commissioners
state that at a depth of only 2,419 feet in the Rosebridge mine (the
deepest in England), the temperature is 94 degrees of Fahrenheit, or
within four degrees of blood heat. ‘The depth at which the temperature
of the earth would amount to blood heat,’ they add, ‘is about 3,000
feet.’ They express a belief that by the ‘long wall system’ of working
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