Now let us suppose that in place of equality of conditions selection is
exercised in favour of those individuals which exhibit the dominant
character. It has been shewn by Mr Norton that even if the selection
exercised were slight the result in the end would be that the recessive
form would entirely disappear. The total time required for bringing this
about would {95} depend upon two things, (1) the proportion of dominants
existing in the population before the process of selection began, and (2)
the intensity of the selection process itself. Suppose, for example, that
we started with a population consisting of pure dominants, heterozygotes,
and recessives in the ratio 1:4:4. Since these figures satisfy the equation
pr = q^2, such a population mating at random within itself is in a state of
stable equilibrium. Now let us suppose that the dominant form (including of
course the heterozygotes) is endowed with a selection advantage over the
recessives of 10%, or in other words that the relative proportion of the
recessives who survive to breed is only 90% of the proportion of dominants
that survive[49]. It is clear that the proportion of dominants must
gradually increase and that of the recessives diminish.
At what rate will this change in the population take place? Mr Norton has
worked this out (see App. I) and has shewn that at the end of 12
generations the proportions of pure dominants, heterozygotes, and
recessives will be 1:2:1. The population will have reached another position
of equilibrium, but the proportion of recessives from being four-ninths of
the {96} total is now reduced to one-quarter. After 18 more generations the
proportions 4:4:1 are reached, the recessives being only one-ninth of the
total; after 40 further generations of the process they become reduced to
one-fortieth. In other words a selective advantage of 10% operating against
the recessives will reduce their numbers in 70 generations from nearly
one-half of the population to less than one-fortieth.
With a less stringent selective rate the number of generations elapsing
before this result is brought about will be larger. If, for example, the
selective rate is diminished from 10% to 1% the number of generations
necessary for bringing about the same change is nearly 700 instead of
70--roughly ten times as great. Even so, and one can hardly speak of a 1%
selective rate as a stringent one, it is remarkable in how brief a space of
time a form which is discriminated against, even lightly, is bound to
disappear. Evolution, in so far as it consists of the supplanting of one
form by another, may be a very much more rapid process than has hitherto
been suspected, for natural selection, if appreciable, must be held to
operate with extraordinary swiftness where it is given established
variations with which to work.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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