When a man works himself up into a rage and proceeds to flourish a loaded revolver, something more is necessary for the security of the bystanders than the knowledge that his ill-temper does not rest upon a reasonable basis. War was not inevitable, certainly; but until the mood of Germany changed, it was exceedingly likely to occur unless the odds against the aggressor were made too formidable for him to face. None of the governments, however, which have controlled our national destinies since 1900, ever developed sufficient energy to realise the position of affairs, or ever mustered up courage to tell the people clearly what the risks were, to state the amount of the premium which was required to cover the risks, and to insist upon the immediate duty of the sacrifice which imperial security inexorably demanded. [1] "I hear it also constantly said--there is no use shutting our eyes or ears to obvious facts--that owing to divergent interests, war some day or other between this country and Germany is inevitable. I never believe in these inevitable wars."--Mr. Bonar Law in _England and Germany_. [2] Rumour finds confirmation in the White Paper; also in an interview with Mr. Lloyd George, reported in _Pearson's Magazine_, March 1915, p. 265, col. ii. {42} CHAPTER V PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY Although in a technical sense the present war was brought on by Austrian diplomacy, no one, in England at least, is inclined to rate the moral responsibility of that empire at the highest figure. It is in Germany that we find, or imagine ourselves to have found, not only the true and deep-seated causes of the war, but the immediate occasions of it. Not the least of our difficulties, however, is to decide the point--Who is Germany? Who was her man of business? Who acted for her in the matter of this war? Who pulled the wires, or touched the button that set the conflagration blazing? Was this the work of an individual or a camarilla? Was it the result of one strong will prevailing, or of several wills getting to loggerheads--wills not particularly strong, but obstinate, and flustered by internal controversy and external events? What actually happened--was it meant by the 'super-men' to happen, or did it come as a shock--not upon 'supermen' at all--but upon several groups of surprised blunderers? These questions are not likely to be answered for a generation or more--until, if ever, the archives of Vienna and Berlin give up their {43} secrets--and it would therefore be idle to waste too much time in analysis of the probabilities. The immediate occasion of the catastrophe has been variously attributed to the German court, army, bureaucracy, professors, press, and people. If we are looking only for a single thing--the hand which lit the conflagration--and not for the profounder and more permanent causes and origins of the trouble, we can at once dismiss several of these suspects from the dock. [Sidenote: MEN OF LETTERS]