Sell ’em! Of course! The public, with their eyes fixed on the stock
market, saw little--that week. The wise stock operators saw much--that
year. That was the difference.
For me, that was the end of doubt and hesitation. I made up my mind
for keeps then and there. That same morning I began what really was
my first campaign along the lines that I have since followed. I told
Harding what I thought and how I stood, and he made no objections to
my selling Great Northern preferred at around 330, and other stocks at
high prices. I profited by my earlier and costly mistakes and sold more
intelligently.
My reputation and my credit were reestablished in a jiffy. That is the
beauty of being right in a broker’s office, whether by accident or not.
But this time I was cold-bloodedly right, not because of a hunch or
from skillful reading of the tape, but as a result of my analysis of
conditions affecting the stock market in general. I wasn’t guessing.
I was anticipating the inevitable. It did not call for any courage to
sell stocks. I simply could not see anything but lower prices, and I
had to act on it, didn’t I? What else could I do?
The whole list was soft as mush. Presently there was a rally and people
came to me to warn me that the end of the decline had been reached.
The big fellows, knowing the short interest to be enormous, had decided
to squeeze the stuffing out of the bears, and so forth. It would set
us pessimists back a few millions. It was a cinch that the big fellows
would have no mercy. I used to thank these kindly counsellors. I
wouldn’t even argue, because then they would have thought that I wasn’t
grateful for the warnings.
The friend who had been in Atlantic City with me was in agony. He could
understand the hunch that was followed by the earthquake. He couldn’t
disbelieve in such agencies, since I had made a quarter of a million
by intelligently obeying my blind impulse to sell Union Pacific. He
even said it was Providence working in its mysterious way to make me
sell stocks when he himself was bullish. And he could understand my
second UP. trade in Saratoga because he could understand any deal that
involved one stock, on which the tip definitely fixed the movement
in advance, either up or down. But this thing of predicting that all
stocks were bound to go down used to exasperate him. What did that kind
of dope do anybody? How in blazes could a gentleman tell what to do?
I recalled old Partridge’s favourite remark--“Well, this is a bull
market, you know”--as though that were tip enough for anybody who
was wise enough; as in truth it was. It was very curious how, after
suffering tremendous losses from a break of fifteen or twenty points,
people who were still hanging on, welcomed a three-point rally and were
certain the bottom had been reached and complete recovery begun.
One day my friend came to me and asked me, “Have you covered?”
“Why should I?” I said.
“For the best reason in the world.”
“What reason is that?”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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