Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjectsProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
All these imaginings are mistaken, however. The exactness of astronomy,
as a science, does not depend on the measurement of the sun's distance
or size, any more than the accuracy of a clock as a timekeeper depends
on the exactness with which the hands of the clock are limited to
certain definite lengths. The skill with which astronomy has dealt with
this particular problem of celestial surveying has been great indeed;
and the results, when considered with due reference to the conditions
of the problem, are excellent: but in reality, if astronomers had
failed utterly to form any ideas whatever as to the sun's distance, if
for aught they knew the sun might be less than one million, or more
than a million millions of miles from us, the exactness of astronomy
as a science would be no whit impaired. And, in the second place, no
doubts whatever need be entertained as to the general inference from
astronomical observations that the sun's distance is between 92 and 93
millions of miles. All the measurements made during the last quarter
of a century lie between 90 and 95 millions of miles, and by far the
greater number of those made by the best methods, and under the most
favourable conditions, lie between 91 and 94 millions of miles. All
the very best cluster closely around a distance of 92-1/3 millions of
miles. We are not for the moment, however, concerned with the question
of the exact distance, but with the question whether astronomy has
obtained satisfactory evidence that the sun's distance lies in the
neighbourhood of the distances deduced by the various methods lately
employed. Putting the matter as one of probabilities, as all scientific
statements must be, it may be said as confidently that the sun's
distance lies between 85 millions and 100 millions of miles as that the
sun will rise to-morrow; and the probability that the sun's distance
is less than 90 millions, or greater than 95 millions of miles, is so
small that it may in effect be counted almost as nothing. Thirdly, the
possibility that the earth may be drawing nearer to the sun by three
or four millions of miles in a century may be dismissed entirely from
consideration. For, one of the inevitable consequences of such a change
of distance would be a change in the length of the year by about three
weeks; and so far from the year diminishing by twenty days or so in
length during a century, it has not diminished ten seconds in length
during the last two thousand years. If there has been any change year
by year in the earth's distance from the sun, it is one to be measured
by yards rather than by miles. Astronomers would be well content if
their 'probable error' in estimating the sun's distance could be
measured by thousands of miles; so that any possible approach of the
earth towards the sun would go but a very little way towards accounting
for the discrepancies between the different estimates of the distance,
even if these estimates grew always smaller as time passed, which is
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