Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's EraVaknin, Samuel
History
Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's Era
Vaknin, Samuel
Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 1952-; Russia (Federation) -- Politics and government -- 1991-
Russia's informal sector is a vital, though crime-tainted, engine of
growth. Laundered money coupled with reinvested profits - from both
legitimate and illicit businesses - drive a lot of the private sector
and underlie the emergence of an affluent elite, especially in Moscow
and other urban centers. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit,
Goskomstat - the State Statistics Committee - regularly adjusts the
formal figures up by 25 percent to incorporate estimates of the black
economy.
Russia faces a dilemma: to quash the economic underground and thus
enhance both tax receipts and Russia's image as an orderly polity - or
to let the pent-up entrepreneurial forces of the "gray sectors" work
their magic?
Russia is slated to join the World Trade Organization in 2004. This
happy occasion would mean deregulation, liberalization and opening up
to competition - all agonizing moves. Russian industry and agriculture
are not up to the task. It took a massive devaluation and a
debilitating financial crisis in 1998 to resurrect consumer appetite
for indigenous goods.
Farming is mostly state-owned, or state-sponsored. Monopolies,
duopolies and cartels make up the bulk of the manufacturing and mining
sectors - especially in the wake of the recent tsunami of mergers and
acquisitions. The Economist Intelligence Unit quotes estimates that 20
conglomerates account for up to 70 percent of the country's $330
billion GDP. The oligarchs are still there, lurking. The banks are
still paralyzed and compromised, though their retail sector is
reviving.
Russians are still ambivalent about foreigners. Paranoid xenophobia was
replaced by guarded wariness. Recently, Russia revoked the fast track
work permit applications hitherto put to good use by managers, scholars
and experts from the West. Foreign minority shareholders still complain
of being ripped-off by powerful, well-connected - and minacious -
business interests.
With the bloody exception of Chechnya, Putin's compelling personality
has helped subdue the classic tensions between center and regions. But,
as Putin himself admitted in a radio Q-and-A session on December 19,
this peaceful co-existence is fraying at the edges.
The president will try to reach a top-down political settlement in the
renegade province prior to the 2004 elections, but will fail. Reform is
anathema to many suborned governors of the periphery and the Kremlin's
miserly handouts are insufficient to grant it a decisive voice in
matters provincial. Devolution - a pet Putin project - is more about
accepting an unsavory reality than about re-defining the Russian state.
The economic disparity between rural and urban is striking. The
Economist Intelligence Unit describes this chasm thus:
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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