The Belgian Curtain: Europe after CommunismVaknin, Samuel
History
The Belgian Curtain: Europe after Communism
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe -- Politics and government -- 1989-; Post-communism -- Europe
Interest rates have to be raised because the effects of one member's
fiscal decisions are communicated to other members through the common
currency. The currency is the medium of exchange of information
regarding the present and future health of the economies involved.
Hence the notorious "EU Stability Pact", recently so flagrantly
abandoned in the face of German budget deficits.
Monetary unions which did not follow the path of fiscal rectitude are
no longer with us.
In an article I published in 1997 ("The History of Previous European
Currency Unions"), I identified five paramount lessons from the short
and brutish life of previous - now invariably defunct - monetary unions:
(A) To prevail, a monetary union must be founded by one or two
economically dominant countries ("economic locomotives"). Such driving
forces must be geopolitically important, maintain political solidarity
with other members, be willing to exercise their clout, and be
economically involved in (or even dependent on) the economies of the
other members.
(B) Central institutions must be set up to monitor and enforce
monetary, fiscal, and other economic policies, to coordinate activities
of the member states, to implement political and technical decisions,
to control the money aggregates and seigniorage (i.e., rents accruing
due to money printing), to determine the legal tender and the rules
governing the issuance of money.
(C) It is better if a monetary union is preceded by a political one
(consider the examples of the USA, the USSR, the UK, and Germany).
(D) Wage and price flexibility are sine qua non. Their absence is a
threat to the continued existence of any union. Unilateral transfers
from rich areas to poor are a partial and short-lived remedy. Transfers
also call for a clear and consistent fiscal policy regarding taxation
and expenditures. Problems like unemployment and collapses in demand
often plague rigid monetary unions. The works of Mundell and McKinnon
(optimal currency areas) prove it decisively (and separately).
(E) Clear convergence criteria and monetary convergence targets.
The current European Monetary Union is far from heeding the lessons of
its ill fated predecessors. Europe's labour and capital markets, though
recently marginally liberalized, are still more rigid than 150 years
ago. The euro was not preceded by an "ever closer (political or
constitutional) union". It relies too heavily on fiscal redistribution
without the benefit of either a coherent monetary or a consistent
fiscal area-wide policy. The euro is not built to cope either with
asymmetrical economic shocks (affecting only some members, but not
others), or with the vicissitudes of the business cycle.
This does not bode well. This union might well become yet another
footnote in the annals of economic history.
The Concert of Europe, Interrupted
By: Dr. Sam Vaknin
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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