The only grave objection that can be alleged is that of the memorable
eruption of 1631, which surprised the neighbouring population so
suddenly that many perished miserably, surrounded or covered with lava.
But that terrible conflagration occurred after centuries of repose, so
that trees had grown in the interior of the crater. No one suspected the
possibility of danger. It took place, too, at the end of autumn, when
the cone is usually covered with clouds, and, therefore, no one had an
opportunity of observing any precursory phenomena.
When the Observatory was established, I was able--in the first instance,
at my own expense, and afterwards with some slight assistance from
Government--to undertake studies more assiduous than any previously
made. I had two instruments adjusted to indicate the internal efforts of
the Volcano, viz., M. Lamond's apparatus of variations, which, by means
of finely-balanced needles and methods of amplification proposed by
Gauss, indicates the slightest trepidation of the ground, and my own
electro-magnetic seismograph, a self-registering instrument of exquisite
delicacy. These instruments, when attentively observed, give the most
valuable information with respect to the activity of the adjacent
Volcano.
If the very slightest eruption occurs, these instruments manifest slight
perturbation, increasing with the activity of the mountain. When the
Volcano attains a certain degree of activity, and the instruments are
proportionately disturbed, it is impossible to foresee a new phase of
increase without constantly watching the changes in the intensity of the
perturbations; and to effect this it is requisite to have upon the spot
a staff of assistants sufficiently numerous, scientific and intelligent.
If, therefore, on the night preceding the 26th of April the instruments
had been properly watched, they would have undoubtedly indicated the
great increase in the activity of the Volcano. The perturbations on the
23rd were steadily increasing, and on the evening of the 25th they were
much stronger than on the 24th, but on the morning of the 26th they had
become extraordinarily strong; they must, therefore, have increased
considerably during the night.
II.
NATURE OF THE LAVAS.
When the observer is near the source of the lava, he sees matter in a
state of fusion, which, like a torrent of liquid fire, runs along, with
more or less impetuosity, between two banks formed by itself. But as
soon as the surface of the torrent cools to the point of congelation, it
loses the splendour of its first incandescence. The part which begins to
harden breaks readily in some lavas into fragments which float on the
viscous fluid beneath; these, increasing in number with distance from
the source, conceal the molten matter beneath and retard its progress,
and at last nothing is seen but the more or less red-hot scoriæ moving
along. These lavas I shall call "_Lavas with fragmentary scoriæ_."
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