The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics — John Shaqi
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
course in a very exaggerated form.
[Figure: Superposition of two Gaussians.]
16. In the above case the nature of the heterogeneity,
and the reasons why the statistics should be so collected and
arranged as to avoid it, seemed tolerably obvious. It will be
seen still more plainly if we take a parallel case drawn from
artificial proceedings. Suppose that after a man had fired a
few thousand shots at a certain spot, say a wafer fixed somewhere
on a wall, the position of the spot at which he aims
were shifted, and he fired a few thousand more shots at the
wafer in its new position. Now let us collect and arrange all
the shots of both series in the order of their departure from
either of the centres, say the new one. Here we should
really be mingling together two discordant sets of elements,
either of which, if kept apart from the other, would have
been of a simple and homogeneous character. We should
find, in consequence, that the resultant law of error betrayed
its composite or heterogeneous origin by a glaring departure
from the customary form, somewhat after the fashion indicated
in the above diagram.
The instance of the English and French heights resembles
the one just given, but falls far short of it in the stringency
with which the requisite conditions are secured. The
fact is we have not here got the most suitable requirements,
viz. a group consisting of a few fixed causes supplemented by
innumerable little disturbing influences. What we call a
nation is really a highly artificial body, the members of
which are subject to a considerable number of local or occasional
disturbing causes. Amongst Frenchmen were included,
presumably, Bretons, Provençals, Alsatians, and so on,
thus commingling distinctions which, though less than those
between French and English, regarded as wholes, are very
far from being insignificant. And to these differences of
race must be added other disturbances, also highly important,
dependent upon varying climate, food and occupation.
It is plain, therefore, that whatever objections exist against
confusing together French and English statistics, exist also,
though of course in a less degree, against confusing together
those of the various provincial and other components which
make up the French people.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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