The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
14. Stated as above, namely, that there is a fixed
invariable human type to which all individual specimens of
humanity may be regarded as having been meant to attain,
but from which they have deviated in one direction or
another; according to a law of deviation capable of _à priori_
determination, the doctrine is little else than absurd. But
if we look somewhat closer at the facts of the case, and the
probable explanation of these facts, we may see our way to
an important truth. The facts, on the authority of Quetelet's
statistics (the great interest and value of which must be
frankly admitted), are very briefly as follows: if we take any
element of our physical frame which admits of accurate
measurement, say the height, and determine this measure in
a great number of different individuals belonging to any
tolerably homogeneous class of people, we shall find that
these heights do admit of an orderly arrangement about a
mean, after the fashion which has been already repeatedly
mentioned. What is meant by a homogeneous class? is a
pertinent and significant enquiry, but applying this condition
to any simple cases its meaning is readily stated. It implies
that the mean in question will be different according to the
nationality of the persons under measurement. According to
Quetelet,[14] in the case of Englishmen the mean is about
5 ft. 9 in.; for Belgians about 5 ft. 7 in.; for the French about
5 ft. 4 in. It need hardly be added that these measures are
those of adult males.
15. It may fairly be asked here what would have
been the consequence, had we, instead of keeping the English
and the French apart, mixed the results of our measurements
of them all together? The question is an important one, as it
will oblige us to understand more clearly what we mean by
homogeneous classes. The answer that would usually be
given to it, though substantially correct, is somewhat too decisive
and summary. It would be said that we are here
mixing distinctly heterogeneous elements, and that in consequence
the resultant law of error will be by no means of
the simple character previously exhibited. So far as such an
answer is to be admitted its grounds are easy to appreciate.
In accordance with the usual law of error the divergences
from the mean grow continuously less numerous as they
increase in amount. Now, if we mix up the French and
English heights, what will follow? Beginning from the
English mean of 5 feet 9 inches, the heights will at first follow
almost entirely the law determined by these English
conditions, for at this point the English data are very numerous,
and the French by comparison very few. But, as we
begin to approach the French mean, the numbers will cease
to show that continual diminution which they should show,
according to the English scale of arrangement, for here the
French data are in turn very numerous, and the English by
comparison few. The result of such a combination of heterogeneous
elements is illustrated by the figure annexed, of
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