The Social Direction of Evolution: An Outline of the Science of EugenicsKellicott, William E. (William Erskine)
Science
The Social Direction of Evolution: An Outline of the Science of Eugenics
Kellicott, William E. (William Erskine)
Eugenics
But the sign changes and becomes positive when we come to other
comparisons. When we count the relative number of pawnbrokers and
general dealers, of "general laborers" (that is, men without a trade
and without regularity of occupation and employment), of employed
children between the ages of ten and fourteen, of persons living more
than two in a room, when we consider the infant death rate, the death
rate from pulmonary tuberculosis, and the relative number of
paupers,--then we find the signs of the coefficients are all positive,
and on the average the coefficients are more than 0.50--a moderate to
high degree of regularity of the relation. The districts characterized
by the larger numbers of such individuals or by higher death rates of
these kinds, are at the same time the districts where the birth rates
are the higher.
In a word, then, Heron found that the greater the number of
professional men, or of servants employed in a community, the lower
the birth rate--a very high degree of negative correlation. On the
other hand, the more pawnbrokers, child laborers, pauper lunatics,
the more overcrowding and tuberculosis, the higher the birth rate--a
high degree of positive correlation. Little doubt here as to which
elements of the city are making the greater contributions to the next
generation. There may be some doubt, however, so let us consider two
possible qualifications of these results. First, is not the death rate
also higher among these least desirable classes? Yes, it is. Is it not
enough higher to compensate for the difference in the birth rates, so
that after all the least desirable classes are not more than replacing
themselves? No, it is not. After calculating the effect of the
differential death rate among these different social groups it still
remains true that the _net_ fertility of the undesirables is greater
than the _net_ fertility of the desirables: the worst classes are in
reality more than replacing themselves numerically in such
communities; the most valuable classes are not even replacing
themselves. Second, is not this the same condition that has always
existed in these districts? Why any cause for supposing that this is
going to bring new results to this society? Has not such a condition
always been present and always been compensated for somehow?
Fortunately, Heron is able to compare with these data of 1901 similar
data for 1851, and is able to show that every one of these relations
has changed in sign since that date--in fifty years. The significance
of this change in sign is probably clear. It means here that in London
sixty years ago there was a high degree of regularity in the relation
such that the more professional men and well-to-do families the
community contained, the higher the birth rate; that ten years ago
this had all become changed so that the more of these desirable
families found in a district the lower is the birth rate. It means
that sixty years ago the relation was such that the more undesirables
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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