The Story of the Bank of England: (A History of English Banking, and a Sketch of the Money Market)Warren, Henry
History
The Story of the Bank of England: (A History of English Banking, and a Sketch of the Money Market)
Warren, Henry
Bank of England -- History; Banks and banking -- England
But we see that he bought at parity, and that in 1896 Consols touched
114. Had he sold at 110 during that year, his £20,000 in Consols would
have realised £22,000. He, however, owed his banker £18,000, so there
remained £4000 to his credit. As his own capital in the speculation was
£2000 he would have exactly doubled it, and nine-and-a-half per cent.
per annum upon £2000 in Consols for close upon two years, with a bonus
of £2000 at the finish, is painfully reminiscent of those financial
dreams which so very seldom materialise; yet huge blocks of Consols
were actually bought during this period of two per cent., and dealt
with in the manner aforesaid.
Of course, the results were not always so satisfactory as those given
in the above illustrations, and no doubt many such ventures ended in
a loss, for prizes of this description are for the lucky few; though
it is usual to dwell upon them to the mortification of the mutable
many. The snatching of profits in this fashion requires skill and
considerable patience, and those persons who receive specious pamphlets
telling them how money is to be made in a marvellously short space of
time by an infallible system may appreciate the plausibility of my
illustrations, but yet should remember that they may find the results
of similar speculations in Consols very disappointing.
The demand for Government securities created by these speculative
operations is one of the causes which drive up the price of Consols
during periods of cheap money, but it is not by any means the only
cause. When the Bank rate advances, and capital can be employed more
advantageously in the London short loan market, this period soon comes
to an end, and consequent sales depress the Consol market.
Very many of the better class securities such as Colonial Government
stocks, Foreign Government securities, and so on, yield from three to
five per cent., and when the Bank of England rate is at from two to
two and a half, though the margin demanded upon such stocks is wider
than that required upon Consols, the difference between the interest
received in the shape of dividends and that paid as the price of a loan
often makes speculative dealings in them decidedly profitable. As the
Bank rate increases, and the speculator's profit margin consequently
narrows, the tendency is for stocks and shares so "carried" to fall in
value. The holders or gamblers then begin to sell, and as the increased
supply of such securities is certain not to be met by an enhanced
demand on the part of investors, prices must fall. Seeing the better
class securities declining in value, those investors who had previously
held aloof are tempted to come in, and the greater the reaction, the
stronger is the inducement to buy; consequently, the lower prices
recede the larger becomes the number of purchasers, until demand
overtakes supply and prices again begin to move upwards.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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