Hughes, William Morris, 1864-1952; Lloyd George, David, 1863-1945; World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
Like most of the foreign issues made during the war it follows the
highly intelligent European practice of putting out loans in small
denominations so as to be within the reach of the great mass of the
people. These bonds may be had in multiples of $100 and upward. The
Government of France has agreed to permit the exportation of sufficient
gold to permit the payment of principal and interest in the yellow metal
in New York. The loan--the only external one of the City of Paris--was
brought out at 983/4 and interest, which would make an investment of
6.30 per cent. In addition to this yield as an investment there is the
possibility of profit in exchange in view of the option to collect
principal and interest at the rate of 5.50 francs per dollar instead of
the normal rate of exchange before the war.
This statement of possible exchange profits leads us to one of the
conspicuous features of the latest National French Loan, which although
internal in form has been put within the ken of the American investor.
Fully to comprehend it you must know that in ordinary times a dollar in
American money is worth 5.18 francs. On account of the dislocation in
foreign exchange the value of a dollar in French money has risen to
approximately 5.85 francs. Therefore when you buy a French security in
terms of francs for American dollars you get a great deal more for your
money than you would have received before the war. Hence the possibility
of profit when francs return to normal is large.
The National French Loan was sold to American investors at an exchange
rate of 5.90, which means that every dollar you employ gives you a
principal of 5.90 francs. On this basis the price for the security
issued at a par of 100 would be 871/2, which would make the direct
yield over 5.70 per cent. Should exchange return to normal, the
subscription price would be equivalent to 751/2, which would make the
direct yield over 6-5/8 per cent.
Translating this loan into terms of money, you find that for every
$14.83 you invest you get 100 francs capital: for every $148.30 you get
1000 francs capital: for $741.52 you receive 5000 francs capital. If
French exchange should return to normal and the securities sell at the
issue price--871/2--the investor would receive $16.89 for every 100 francs
of capital: $168.88 for every 1000 francs: $844.39 for every 5000
francs. On this basis without regard to income return the holder of 5000
francs capital would receive a profit of $103.94 or over 13.75 per cent
on his investment.
Should the market price of the issue advance to 100 and exchange return
to normal the investor would get $19.30 for every 100 francs capital;
$193.00 for every 1000 francs capital; $965.00 for every 5000 francs
capital. In this case and again without regard to income return, the
holder of 5000 francs capital would receive a net profit of $223.50 or
approximately 30 per cent.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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