A Book for All Readers: An Aid to the Collection, Use, and Preservation of Books and the Formation of Public and Private LibrariesSpofford, Ainsworth Rand
Science
A Book for All Readers: An Aid to the Collection, Use, and Preservation of Books and the Formation of Public and Private Libraries
Spofford, Ainsworth Rand
Books; Library science
But, while the British census makes no attempt at estimating the property
of the people, the independent estimates of statistical writers vary
hopelessly and irreconcilably. Mr. J. R. McCulloch, one of the foremost
accredited writers on economic science, lays it down as a dictum, that
"sixty years is the shortest time in which the capital of an old and
densely-peopled country can be expected to be doubled." Yet Joseph Lowe
assumes the wealth of the United Kingdom to have doubled in eighteen
years, from 1823 to 1841; while George R. Porter, in his
widely-accredited book on the "Progress of the Nation," and Leoni Levi, a
publicist of high reputation, make out, (by combining their estimates)
that the private wealth of England increased fifty per cent. in seventeen
years, at which rate it would double in about twenty-nine years, instead
of sixty, as laid down by Mr. McCulloch. Mr. Levi calculates the
aggregate private wealth of Great Britain in 1858, at $29,178,000,000,
being a fraction less than the guesses of the census enumerators at the
national wealth of the United States, twelve years later, in 1870. Can
one guess be said to be any nearer the fact than the other? May we not be
pardoned for treating all estimates as utterly fallacious that are not
based upon known facts and figures? Why do we hear so much of the
"approximate correctness" of so many statistical tables, when, in point
of fact, the primary data are incapable of proof, and the averages and
conclusions built upon them are all assumed? "Statisticians," says one of
the fraternity, "are generally held to be eminently practical people; on
the contrary, they are more given to theorizing than any other class of
writers; and are generally less expert in it."
In the presence of such gross discrepancies as these, by statisticians of
the highest repute, and among such a practical people as the English,
what value can be attached to the mere estimates of wealth which have
been attempted in the census of the United States? The careful
Superintendent of the Census of 1870 and 1880, the late Francis A.
Walker, writes concerning it:
"At the best, these figures represent but the opinion of one man, or of a
body of men, in the collection of material, and in the calculation of the
several elements of the public wealth." And in the last Census Report for
1890, the results of the so-called "census of wealth," are cautiously
submitted, "as showing in a general way a continuous increase in the
wealth of the nation, the exact proportions of which cannot be
measured."
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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