A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United StatesJuglar, Clément
History
A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United States
Juglar, Clément
Depressions
We may here note similar delays in the breaking out of panics, in the
period of 1837, 1839, 1864-1866 in France and in England. Even an
involved state of affairs may be hidden by certain conditions, and the
situation, although itself exposed to the same excessive speculation,
may witness the breaking out of the panic which has been delayed for a
certain time, only to occur simultaneously with the beginning of a
decline of prices, and when it is thought that danger has been escaped.
As in Brussels and in the United States in 1837-1839 and in England in
1864-1866, large houses and powerful institutions of credit had
maintained a whole scaffolding of speculation which was already out of
plumb, but still able to stand upright through the general effect of the
parts which connected them, and in this unstable equilibrium it sufficed
for a single one to detach itself in order to overthrow the whole
edifice at a juncture at which it was hoped it would continue to stand
and even grow stronger. Does not this prove that after these epochs of
expansion and activity characterizing prosperous periods (and there is
no prosperous period without a rise in prices) a stoppage is necessary,
a panic allowing a period of rest to permit the liquidation of
transactions employed in helping to make a series of exchanges at high
prices, and to allow the capital and savings of countries which had been
too rapidly scattered and exhausted to reconstruct themselves during
these years of tranquillity and of slackening business?
Confidence had already returned in New York despite the steady demands
of the country bankers upon their correspondents, which pulled down the
reserve below the legal limit; nevertheless in the midst of all the
failures there was no suspension of specie payments.
The crisis of 1884, according to the Comptroller of the Currency, had
been less foreseen than the crisis of 1873, and this notwithstanding it
was sufficient to observe the number of enterprises and schemes flung as
a prey to speculation, in order to foresee that financial troubles and
disasters to the country must result.
The continuation of payments in gold, the low prices, and the outlook
for a fine harvest gave courage, preserved the remaining confidence, and
already allowed a speedy resumption of business to be anticipated.
The panic, although spreading over the whole Union, raged especially in
New York. Without wishing to expatiate upon its primary causes, the
Comptroller of the Treasury could not help remarking that it had shown
itself under the same circumstances as recently as in 1873; above all
there were issues for new enterprises; the speculation had rushed to
take them up at a premium, and people now asked their true value.
At this juncture railroad earnings, instead of increasing, showed
weakness, and suffered a slight reaction; the solvency of houses
interested began to be doubted; new loans were refused them, and
immediately the artificially constructed edifice gave way.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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