A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United StatesJuglar, Clément
History
A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United States
Juglar, Clément
Depressions
miles, and the consequent new securities were poorly absorbed.
Manufactures were generally prosperous.
The huge imports to take advantage of old tariff rates absorbed much
money, while the Baring liquidation and that of other houses identified
with South American enterprises, and the distrust bred by our Silver
Bill caused a return of our securities, necessitating such a curtailment
of credit that our panic took place. From July through December 31st,
money ruled high and fluctuating.
The year shows a decline in circulation to $123,000,000, a decline of
specie reserve to $178,000,000 with a subsequent rise to $190,000,000, a
decline in legal tenders to $82,000,000, and of deposits to
$1,485,000,000, while the banks increased to 3,573 with a capital of
$657,000,000, and a surplus and reserve of $316,000,000, and discounts
and loans rose to $1,932,000,000.
The year 1891 has exhibited the usual incidents succeeding a time of
reorganizations after panics and, after a period of selling and
settlement, a rehabilitation of affairs and the consequent advance in
prices of securities. The unprecedented abundance of our crops as a
whole, coupled with the almost universal shortage in European countries,
largely aided the rehabilitation. Bank balances reflected this
startlingly. On February 26, 1891, loans and discounts and over-drafts
amounted to $1,927,654,559.80. On May 4, 1891, loans and discounts and
over-drafts amounted to $1,969,-$46,379.67. On the former date capital,
deposits, surplus, and undivided profits amounted to $2,462,456,677.92,
and on the latter date to $2,567,288,143.45.
On July 9, 1891, discounts, loans, and over-drafts amounted to
$1,963,704,948.07, and capital, deposits, surplus, and undivided profits
to $2,522,609,679.78.
Confidence is restored and prices have advanced, and should advance
still further. There seem to be only three things that could check the
advancing market, and of those the two chief ones seem pretty surely
relegated to a fairly distant future. These latter two are, in the order
of importance: (1) a free silver law, _i.e._, a law making, say, 67
cents' worth of silver pass for an equivalent of a 100-cent dollar; and
(2) a very radical and abrupt change in our tariff law. The remaining
and very minor influence is the breaking out of a general European war,
which would at first induce a selling of our securities, and so lower
prices, but which finally and shortly would benefit us by a subsequent
returning flood of money exchanged for our various bread-stuffs, and
supplies, and even securities of different sorts.
It would be better for our future if the liquidation of the last panic
had been more radical in some cases, notably in land speculation. In
this liquidation has not been thorough, and, as far as these cases
influence the market, it has remained for a long time unsound, and even
now is not fully recovered.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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