A History of Deerpark in Orange County, N. Y.Gumaer, Peter E.
History
A History of Deerpark in Orange County, N. Y.
Gumaer, Peter E.
Deerpark (N.Y. : Town) -- History
As no accurate calculation can be made of the whole number of families
descended from the first four permanent residents in this neighborhood,
I have adopted a rule for obtaining the number of those now in existence
as near as the same can probably be arrived at without actual
enumeration, by getting a ratio of increase of the first, second, and
as much of the third, generation as I can ascertain; also the whole
number of these from the time of the commencement of the first to the
present time, in manner following, to wit:
The first four families had an increase of 18, and these had an increase
of 66 families, and 27 of the latter had an increase of 129. This
enumeration is made from a knowledge I have in relation to those
ancients. Of these, however, there were two families of the second
generation whom I could not determine, but have estimated them at the
same average rate of increase as that of the others, and the remaining
39 are estimated to have produced an equal proportion of population,
according to their number, as that of the 27, which latter giving an
amount of 129, the remaining 39 will give an amount of 186, and both
these amount to 315 families of the third generation. The average
increase of each of these per family is as follows:
First 4 give a ratio of 4 1/2
Second 18 " " " 3 3/4
Third 66 " " " 4 3/4
These being compounded give an average ratio of about 4 1/2 families to
one. Now a greater proportion of the fourth and fifth generations have
died younger than of the three first, in consequence of which I have
reduced the increase of the two former to that of a ratio of three per
family, being about one-third lower than those enumerated. This is a
great change for the term in which the alteration has occurred; still,
the latter is about the same rate of increase as that of the United
States since the year 1790 to the present time. In respect of foreign
access of population the proportion which the former has acquired by
intermarriages cannot differ much from that which the latter has
acquired by immigration from Europe and by the importation of Africans
to enslave them.
The year 1700 I contemplate to be about the medium point of time between
the births of the oldest and the youngest children of the first four
families, from which to the present time is 161 years and reaches on
an average about the beginning of the sixth generation and leaves two
unascertained whose increase on a ratio of 3 is as follows, to wit:
315 X 3--945 X 3 = 2835 families of the present fifth generation; and
exclusive of these there must now be a great proportion of the fourth
generation in existence, and that the whole of the present families of
descendants mentioned cannot be less than 3200 now on the stage of
action. The greatest part of these are now widely dispersed into
different parts of our country.
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