A history of economic doctrines : $b from the time of the physiocrats to the present dayGide, Charles
History
A history of economic doctrines : $b from the time of the physiocrats to the present day
Gide, Charles
Economics -- History
Every term corresponds to a period of twenty-five years, and a glance
at the figures will show us that population is supposed to double every
twenty-five years, while the means of subsistence merely increases by an
equal amount during each of these periods. Thus the divergence between
the two series grows with astonishing rapidity. In the table given
above, containing only nine terms, the population figure has already
grown to twenty-seven times the means of subsistence in a period of 225
years. Had the series been extended up to the hundredth term a numerical
representation of the divergence would have required some ingenuity.
The first progression may be taken as correct, representing as it
does the biological law of generation. The terms “generation” and
“multiplication” are not used as synonyms without some purpose. It is
true that doubling supposes four persons to arrive at the marriageable
age, and this means five or six births if we are to allow for the
inevitable wastage from infant mortality. This figure appears somewhat
high to those who live in a society where limitation of the birth-rate
is fairly usual. But it is certain that among living beings in general,
including humankind, who are least prolific, the number of births where
no restraint of any kind exists is really much higher. Women have been
known to give birth to twenty or even more children. And there are no
signs of diminishing capacity among the sexes, for population is still
growing. In taking two as his coefficient Malthus has certainly not
overstepped the mark.[295]
The period of twenty-five years as the interval between the two terms is
more open to criticism.[296] The practice of reckoning three generations
to a century implies that an interval of about thirty-three years must
elapse between one generation and another.
But these are unimportant details. It is immaterial whether we lengthen
the interval between the two terms from twenty-five to thirty-three
years, or reduce the ratio from 2 to 1½, or even to something between 1¼
and 1¹/₁₀. The movement will be a little slower, but it is enough that
its geometrical character should be admitted, for however slow it moves
at first it will grow by leaps and bounds until it surpasses all limits.
These corrections fail to touch the real force of Malthus’s reasoning
concerning the law of reproduction.
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