A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
When we completely understand the nature of the infective and
contagious diseases it seems well within the bounds of possibility
that the systematic destruction of their germs may be carried far
enough to remove them altogether from the planet. [18] We have now,
even by the highly imperfect measure of quarantine and a period
of muzzling (from which, on no evident ground except that it would
interfere with the amusements of the governing class to include them,
sporting dogs were excluded), apparently banished hydrophobia from
Great Britain. If it prove to be the case that just as hydrophobia
cannot arise spontaneously, but requires to be "started" by the entry
into the blood of an animal of an existing infection, other infective
diseases require pre-existing disease before they can arise, we may
get rid of them altogether. The dream may appear a wild one. But
it is not wilder than the dreams of a thinker who anticipated any
one of a hundred common facts of to-day must have appeared to our
great-great-grandfathers.
It is, of course, not to be supposed that disease can altogether be
banished from a world so highly artificial as that of the next century
will be. Undoubtedly the growth of sanitary science and the knowledge
of the larger facts of hygiene, which is only now beginning to dawn
upon us, will have a great influence in correcting some of the evils
which over-civilisation at present entails. But the very progress of
the art of healing will no doubt have the effect of perpetuating in a
manner the existence of illness. Every forward step in medicine serves
to save alive some weakling that in a less advanced civilisation would
die; and these survivors, possibly propagating their species, will have
weak descendants, on whom whatever possibility of disease continues
to exist will certainly fasten. The discovery of means by which we
can make a weak "constitution" into a strong one is perhaps the least
likely of medical innovations. It would be altogether contrary to the
general spirit of the times anticipated to expect that we shall have
steeled our hearts to the destruction of feeble lives as dangerous
to the race. We are much more likely to go on finding better means
to perpetuate them: and this means that there will always be work for
the doctor, though the infective fevers will have been banished from
the earth. Medicine, therefore, will still aspire. But apart from
what are called occupation-diseases, caused by certain manufacturing
processes (of which the more deadly, as phosphorus match-making,
lead-glazing of earthenware and the manufacture of enamelled iron
will before long certainly be abolished), the elaborate machinery
and rapid travel of the new age must needs exact a certain toll
of death and mutilation. The surgeon will have more to do than the
physician. Frightful accidents will occur from time to time. The maim,
the halt and the blind must pay the price of progress. And it is hardly
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