A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
caused by the vast atmospheric disturbances created by days and weeks
of cannonading: and of course it is an old theory that heavy gun-fire
"brings down the rain." Military historians say that the number of
wet-day battles altogether exceeds any expectation which could have
been formed without allowing for effects of this sort. When science
has pondered upon the subject, and instituted in an ordered manner
experiments of a kind hitherto never taken very seriously, it may
very well be that some means less violent than the detonation of
explosives may be discovered by the practical meteorologist for
creating disturbances in the atmosphere; and while it may not be
possible to prevent excessive rainfall at inconvenient times, it
seems easy to conceive that when there is moisture in the atmosphere
we may be able to bring it down as rain. Of course this is a very
different thing from breaking up droughts: and artificial rain-making
cannot in itself be anything but a momentary expedient. The effects
of deforestation have for some time been observed and the plan
of improving waterless areas by the contrary process is already
discussed. While it seems rather a "large order" to undertake to
meddle with the balance of atmospheric composition on a large scale,
especially as we know so little of the conditions that even success
might very possibly be attended by unforeseen and perhaps calamitous
results, there is nothing intrinsically absurd in the notion that we
might adopt means on a vast scale for increasing oceanic evaporation
and, utilising the exact foreknowledge of winds and air currents
which we shall certainly have achieved, bring moisture and rain to
arid tracts or countries suffering from drought. The operation would
no doubt require to be stupendous, but the next century is not going
to be afraid of stupendous operations; and anticipating vast and
unforeseen progress in meteorology, it would be hazardous to believe
that no practical use will be made of such progress.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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