A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Huygens united the divers problems which had already been solved and
added new ones in a little treatise, the first that has appeared on this
subject and which has the title _De Ratiociniis in ludo aleæ_. Several
geometricians have occupied themselves with the subject since: Hudde,
the great pensionary, Witt in Holland, and Halley in England, applied
calculus to the probabilities of human life, and Halley published in
this field the first table of mortality. About the same time Jacques
Bernoulli proposed to geometricians various problems of probability, of
which he afterwards gave solutions. Finally he composed his beautiful
work entitled _Ars conjectandi_, which appeared seven years after his
death, which occurred in 1706. The science of probabilities is more
profoundly investigated in this work than in that of Huygens. The author
gives a general theory of combinations and series, and applies it to
several difficult questions concerning hazards. This work is still
remarkable on account of the justice and the cleverness of view, the
employment of the formula of the binomial in this kind of questions, and
by the demonstration of this theorem, namely, that in multiplying
indefinitely the observations and the experiences, the ratio of the
events of different natures approaches that of their respective
probabilities in the limits whose interval becomes more and more narrow
in proportion as they are multiplied, and become less than any
assignable quantity. This theorem is very useful for obtaining by
observations the laws and the causes of phenomena. Bernoulli attaches,
with reason, a great importance to his demonstration, upon which he has
said to have meditated for twenty years.
In the interval, from the death of Jacques Bernoulli to the publication
of his work, Montmort and Moivre produced two treatises upon the
calculus of probabilities. That of Montmort has the title _Essai sur les
Jeux de hasard_; it contains numerous applications of this calculus to
various games. The author has added in the second edition some letters
in which Nicolas Bernoulli gives the ingenious solutions of several
difficult problems. The treatise of Moivre, later than that of Montmort,
appeared at first in the _Transactions philosophiques_ of the year 1711.
Then the author published it separately, and he has improved it
successively in three editions. This work is principally based upon the
formula of the binomial and the problems which it contains have, like
their solutions, a grand generality. But its distinguishing feature is
the theory of recurrent series and their use in this subject. This
theory is the integration of linear equations of finite differences with
constant coefficients, which Moivre made in a very happy manner.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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