A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
But the investigation of the true figure of the sea presents great
difficulties. Aided by the discoveries which the geometricians had just
made in the theory of the movement of fluids and in the calculus of
partial differences, I undertook this investigation, and I gave the
differential equations of the movement of the sea by supposing that it
covers the entire earth. In drawing thus near to nature I had the
satisfaction of seeing that my results approached the observations,
especially in regard to the little difference which exists in our ports
between the two tides of the solstitial syzygies of the same day. I
found that they would be equal if the sea had everywhere the same depth;
I found further that in giving to this depth convenient values one was
able to augment the height of the tides in a port conformably to the
observations. But these investigations, in spite of their generality,
did not satisfy at all the great differences which even adjacent ports
present in this regard and which prove the influence of local
circumstances. The impossibility of knowing these circumstances and the
irregularity of the basin of the seas and that of integrating the
equations of partial differences which are relative has compelled me to
make up the deficiency by the method I have indicated above. I then
endeavored to determine the greatest ratios possible among the forces
which affect all the molecules of the sea, and their effects observable
in our ports. For this I made use of the following principle, which may
be applied to many other phenomena.
"The state of the system of a body in which the primitive conditions of
the movement have disappeared by the resistances which this movement
meets is periodic as the forces which animate it."
Combining this principle with that of the coexistence of very small
oscillations, I have found an expression of the height of the tides
whose arbitraries contain the effect of local circumstances of each port
and are reduced to the smallest number possible; it is only necessary to
compare it to a great number of observations.
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