A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Upon the invitation of the Academy of Sciences, observations were made
at the beginning of the last century at Brest upon the tides, which were
continued during six consecutive years. The situation of this port is
very favorable to this sort of observations; it communicates with the
sea by a canal which empties into a vast roadstead at the far end of
which the port has been constructed. The irregularities of the sea
extend thus only to a small degree into the port, just as the
oscillations which the irregular movement of a vessel produces in a
barometer are diminished by a throttling made in the tube of this
instrument. Moreover, the tides being considerable at Brest, the
accidental variations caused by the winds are only feeble; likewise we
notice in the observations of these tides, however little we multiply
them, a great regularity which induced me to propose to the government
to order in this port a new series of observations of the tides,
continued during a period of the movement of the nodes of the lunar
orbit. This has been done. The observations began June 1, 1806; and
since this time they have been made every day without interruption. I am
indebted to the indefatigable zeal of M. Bouvard, for all that interests
astronomy, the immense calculations which the comparison of my analysis
with the observations has demanded. There have been used about six
thousand observations, made during the year 1807 and the fifteen years
following. It results from this comparison that my formulæ represent
with a remarkable precision all the varieties of the tides relative to
the digression of the moon, from the sun, to the declination of these
stars, to their distances from the earth, and to the laws of variation
at the _maximum_ and _minimum_ of each of these elements. There results
from this accord a probability that the flow and the ebb of the sea is
due to the attraction of the sun and moon, so approaching certainty that
it ought to leave room for no reasonable doubt. It changes into
certainty when we consider that this attraction is derived from the law
of universal gravity demonstrated by all the celestial phenomena.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account