A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
been only .5428 millimeter in the three months of November, December,
January, and that it has risen to 1.0563 millimeters in the three
following months, which coincides with the observations of M. Ramond.
The other months offer nothing similar.
In order to apply to these phenomena the calculation of these
probabilities, I commenced by determining the law of the probability of
the anomalies of the diurnal variation due to hazard. Applying it then
to the observations of this phenomenon, I found that it was a bet of
more than 300,000 against one that a regular cause produced it. I do not
seek to determine this cause; I content myself with stating its
existence. The period of the diurnal variation regulated by the solar
day indicates evidently that this variation is due to the action of the
sun. The extreme smallness of the attractive action of the sun upon the
atmosphere is proved by the smallness of the effects due to the united
attractions of the sun and the moon. It is then by the action of its
heat that the sun produces the diurnal variation of the barometer; but
it is impossible to subject to calculus the effects of its action on the
height of the barometer and upon the winds. The diurnal variation of the
magnetic needle is certainly a result of the action of the sun. But does
this star act here as in the diurnal variation of the barometer by its
heat or by its influence upon electricity and upon magnetism, or finally
by the union of these influences? A long series of observations made in
different countries will enable us to apprehend this.
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