A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
One of the most remarkable phenomena of the system of the world is that
of all the movements of rotation and of revolution of the planets and
the satellites in the sense of the rotation of the sun and about in the
same plane of its equator. A phenomenon so remarkable is not the effect
of hazard: it indicates a general cause which has determined all its
movements. In order to obtain the probability with which this cause is
indicated we shall observe that the planetary system, such as we know it
to-day, is composed of eleven planets and of eighteen satellites at
least, if we attribute with Herschel six satellites to the planet
Uranus. The movements of the rotation of the sun, of six planets, of the
moon, of the satellites of Jupiter, of the ring of Saturn, and of one of
its satellites have been recognized. These movements form with those of
revolution a totality of forty-three movements directed in the same
sense; but one finds by the analysis of probabilities that it is a bet
of more than 4000000000000 against one that this disposition is not the
result of hazard; this forms a probability indeed superior to that of
historical events in regard to which no doubt exists. We ought then to
believe at least with equal confidence that a primitive cause has
directed the planetary movements, especially if we consider that the
inclination of the greatest number of these movements at the solar
equator is very small.
Another equally remarkable phenomenon of the solar system is the small
degree of the eccentricity of the orbs of the planets and the
satellites, while those of the comets are very elongated, the orbs of
the system not offering any intermediate shades between a great and a
small eccentricity. We are again forced to recognize here the effect of
a regular cause; chance has certainly not given an almost circular form
to the orbits of all the planets and their satellites; it is then that
the cause which has determined the movements of these bodies has
rendered them almost circular. It is necessary, again, that the great
eccentricities of the orbits of the comets should result from the
existence of this cause without its having influenced the direction of
their movements; for it is found that there are almost as many
retrograde comets as direct comets, and that the mean inclination of all
their orbits to the ecliptic approaches very nearly half a right angle,
as it ought to be if the bodies had been thrown at hazard.
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