A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Applying this conclusion to all extraordinary deeds it results from it
that the probability of the error or of the falsehood of the witness
becomes as much greater as the fact attested is more extraordinary. Some
authors have advanced the contrary on this basis that the view of an
extraordinary fact being perfectly similar to that of an ordinary fact
the same motives ought to lead us to give the witness the same credence
when he affirms the one or the other of these facts. Simple common sense
rejects such a strange assertion; but the calculus of probabilities,
while confirming the findings of common sense, appreciates the greatest
improbability of testimonies in regard to extraordinary facts.
These authors insist and suppose two witnesses equally worthy of belief,
of whom the first attests that he saw an individual dead fifteen days
ago whom the second witness affirms to have seen yesterday full of life.
The one or the other of these facts offers no improbability. The
reservation of the individual is a result of their combination; but the
testimonies do not bring us at all directly to this result, although the
credence which is due these testimonies ought not to be decreased by the
fact that the result of their combination is extraordinary.
But if the conclusion which results from the combination of the
testimonies was impossible one of them would be necessarily false; but
an impossible conclusion is the limit of extraordinary conclusions, as
error is the limit of improbable conclusions; the value of the
testimonies which becomes zero in the case of an impossible conclusion
ought then to be very much decreased in that of an extraordinary
conclusion. This is indeed confirmed by the calculus of probabilities.
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