Temporary causes, however, such as heavy falls of snow or rain limited to one continental area, the shifting of ice-masses, even the movements of winds, may render the globe slightly lop-sided, and thus oblige it to forsake its normal axis, and rotate on one somewhat divergent from it. This "instantaneous axis" (for it is incessantly changing) must, by mathematical theory, revolve round the axis of figure in a period of 306 days. Provided, that is to say, the earth were a perfectly rigid body. But it is far from being so; it yields sensibly to every strain put upon it; and this yielding tends to protract the time of circulation of the displaced pole. The length of its period, then, serves as a kind of measure of the plasticity of the globe; which, according to Newcomb's and S. S. Hough's independent calculations,[893] seems to be a little less than that of steel. In an earth compacted of steel, the instantaneous axis would revolve in 441 days; in the actual earth, the process is accomplished in 428 days. By this new path, accordingly, astronomers have been led to an identical estimate of the consistence of our globe with that derived from tidal investigations. Variations of latitude are intrinsically complex. To produce them, an incalculable interplay of causes must be at work, each with its proper period and law of action.[894] All the elements of the phenomenon are then in a perpetual state of flux,[895] and absorb for their continual redetermination, the arduous and combined labours of many astronomers. Nor is this trouble superfluous. Minute in extent though they be, the shiftings of the pole menace the very foundations of exact celestial science; their neglect would leave the entire fabric insecure. Just at the beginning of the present century they reached a predicted minimum, but are expected again to augment their range after the year 1902. The interesting suggestion has been made by Mr. J. Halm that such fluctuations are, in some obscure way, affected by changes in solar activity, and conform like them to an eleven-year cycle.[896]