A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
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A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
_Poland_, too, must be given a possible problem, but it is not easy
to be practical with so impracticable a subject. Her main problem can
be solved only by time, and the recovery of her neighbors. I deal
here only with the urgent question of making just possible for her a
reorganization of currency, and of facilitating a peaceable intercourse
between herself and Germany. For this purpose I would assign to her the
balance of the reserved milliard, namely, 700 million gold marks, of
which the annual interest should be available to her unconditionally,
but of which the capital should be employed only for a currency
reorganization, under conditions to be approved by the United States
and Great Britain.
In its essentials this scheme is very simple. I think that it satisfies
my criterion of leaving every Finance Minister in Europe with a
possible problem. The rest must come gradually, and I will not burden
the argument of this book by considering along what lines the detailed
solutions should be sought.
Who are the losers? Even on paper—far more in reality—every
continental country gains an advantage. But on paper the United States
and the United Kingdom are losers. What is each of them giving up?
Under the London Settlement Great Britain is entitled to 22 per cent
of the receipts, which is from 780 to 1010 million gold marks per
annum (£39,000,000 to £50,500,000 gold) according to which assumption
is adopted as to the volume of German exports. She is owed by various
European governments (including Russia, see Appendix No. IX.)
£1,800,000,000, which at 6 per cent for interest and sinking fund is
£108,000,000 per annum. On paper she would forego these sums, say
£150,000,000 per annum, altogether. In actual fact, her prospects of
securing more than a fraction of this amount are remote. Great Britain
lives by commerce, and most Englishmen now need but little persuading
that she will gain more in honor, prestige, and wealth by employing
a prudent generosity to preserve the equilibrium of commerce and
the well–being of Europe, than by attempting to exact a hateful and
crushing tribute, whether from her victorious Allies or her defeated
enemy.
The United States would forego on paper a capital sum of about 6500
million dollars, which, at 6 per cent, represents an annual charge
of $390,000,000 (£78,000,000 gold). But in my opinion the chance of
her being actually paid any considerable amount of this, if she tries
to exact it, is decidedly remote.[111] Is there any likelihood of
the United States joining in such a scheme _soon enough_ (for I feel
confident she will cancel these debts in the end) to be useful?
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