A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
France has an opportunity now of consolidating her national position
into one of the stablest, safest, richest on the face of the earth;
self–contained; well– but not over–populated; the heir of a peculiar
and splendid civilization. Neither whining about devastated districts,
which are easily repaired, nor boasting of military hegemonies, which
can quickly ruin her, let her lift up her head as the leader and
mistress of Europe in the peaceful practices of the mind.
Nevertheless, these objects are not to be gained by bargaining and
cannot be imposed from without. Therefore they must not be dragged
into the Reparation Settlement. This Settlement must be offered France
on one condition only,—that she accepts it. But if, like Shylock, she
claims her pound of flesh, then let the Law prevail. Let her have her
bond, and let us have our bonds too. Let her get what she can from
Germany and pay what she owes to the United States and England.
The chief question for dispute is, perhaps, whether an annual payment
by Germany of £63,000,000 (gold) is enough. I admit that the payment
of a somewhat larger sum may prove to be within her capacity. But I
recommend this figure because on the one hand it is sufficient to
restore the destruction done in France, yet on the other is not so
crushing that, to make Germany pay it, we need be in a position to
invade her every spring and autumn. We must fix the payment at an
amount which Germany herself will recognize as not unjust, and which is
sufficiently within her maximum capacity to leave her some incentive to
work and pay it off.
Suppose that we knew the theoretical maximum of Germany’s capacity
to produce and sell abroad a surplus of goods, or could hit on some
sliding scale which would automatically absorb year by year whatever
surplus there was; should we be wise to demand it? The project of
extracting at the point of the bayonet—for that is what it would
mean—a payment so heavy that it would never be paid voluntarily,
and to go on doing this until all the makers of the Peace Treaty of
Versailles have been long dead and buried in their local Valhallas, is
neither good nor sensible.
My own proposals, moderate though they may seem in comparison with
others, throw on Germany a very great burden. They procure for France
an enormous benefit. Frenchmen, having fed to satiety on imaginary
figures, are nearly ready, I think, to find a surprising flavor and
piquancy in real ones. Let them consider what a tremendous financial
strength my scheme would give them. Freed from external debt, they
would receive in real values each year for thirty years a payment
equivalent in gold to nearly half the gold reserve now held by the Bank
of France; and at the end of the set period Germany would have paid
back ten times what she took after 1870.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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