[41] Exports for the six months May–October 1921 were valued at about 40 milliard paper marks (exclusive, I think, of deliveries of coal and payments in kind to the Allies), as against imports valued at 53 milliard paper marks. If the monthly export figures are converted into gold marks at the average exchange of the month, the exports for the six months work out at about 1865 million gold marks, or at the rate of rather less than 4 milliard gold marks per annum. [42] In _The Economic Consequences of the Peace_, p. 203, I expressly premised that my estimates were based on a value of money not widely different from that existing at the date at which I wrote. Since then prices have risen and fallen back again. The same proviso is necessary in the case of the present estimates. It would have been more practical if, in fixing Germany’s liability in terms of money for a long period of years, some provision had been made for adjusting the real burden in accordance with fluctuations in the value of money during the period of payment. [43] See Excursus III. [44] I first published this prediction in August 1921. As this book goes to press, the German Government have notified the Reparation Commission (December 15, 1921) that, having failed in their attempt to secure a foreign loan, they cannot find, apart from deliveries in kind, more than 150 or 200 million gold marks towards the instalments of January and February, 1922. [45] The United States has the right to retain and liquidate all property, rights, and interests belonging to German nationals and lying within the territories, colonies, and possessions of the United States on January 10, 1920. The proceeds of such liquidation are at the disposal of the United States “in accordance with its laws and regulations,” that is to say, at the disposal of Congress within the limitations of the Constitution, and may be applied by them in any of the three following ways: (1) the assets in question may be returned to their original German owners; (2) they may be applied to the discharge of claims by United States nationals with regard to their property, rights, and interests in German territory, or debts owing to them by German nationals, or to the payment of claims growing out of acts of the German Government after the United States entered the war, and also to the discharge of similar American claims in respect of those of Germany’s Allies against whom the United States was at war; (3) they may be turned over to the Reparation Commission as a credit to Germany under this head. [46] The rates for conversion of paper marks into gold marks have been taken as follows: Number of paper marks per 100 gold marks in May, 1465.5; June, 1647.9; July, 1832; August, 1996.4; September, 2443.2; October, 3942.6 [47] Provisional figures.