A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
I have spent much time over the French claim, because it is the
largest, and because more particulars are available about it than
about the claims of the other Allies. On the face of it, the Belgian
claim is open to the same criticism as the French. But in this claim a
larger part is played by levies on the civilian population and personal
injuries to civilians. The material damage, however, was on a very
much smaller scale than in France. Belgian industry is already working
at its pre–war efficiency, and the amount of reconstruction still to
be made good is not on a great scale. The Belgian Minister for Home
Affairs stated in Parliament in February 1920 that at the date of the
Armistice 80,000 houses and 1100 public buildings had been destroyed.
This suggests that the Belgian claim on this head ought to be about a
quarter of the French claim; but in view of the greater wealth of the
invaded districts of France, the Belgian loss is probably decidedly
less than a quarter of the French loss. The claim, actually submitted
by Belgium, for property, shipping, civilians and prisoners (that is to
say, the aggregate claim apart from pensions and allowances) amounted
to 34,254 million Belgian francs. Inasmuch as the Belgian Ministry of
Finance, in an official survey published in 1913, estimate the entire
wealth of the country at 29,525 million Belgian francs, it is evident
that, even allowing for the diminished value of the Belgian franc,
which is our measuring rod, this claim is very grossly excessive. I
should guess that the degree of exaggeration is quite as great as in
the case of France.
The British Empire claim is, apart from pensions and allowances, almost
entirely in respect of shipping losses. The tonnage lost and damaged
is definitely known. The value of the cargoes carried is a matter of
difficult guesswork. On the basis of an average of $150 for the hull
and $200 for the cargo per gross ton lost, I estimated the claim in
_The Economic Consequences of the Peace_ (p. 132) at $2,700,000,000.
The actual claim lodged was for $3,835,000,000. Much depends on the
date at which the cost of replacement is calculated. Most of the
tonnage was in fact replaced out of vessels the building of which
commenced before the end of the war or shortly afterwards, and thus
cost a much higher price than prevailed in, _e.g._, 1921. But even so
the claim lodged is very high. It seems to be based on an estimate of
$500 per gross ton lost for hull and cargo together, any excess in this
being set off against the fact that no separate allowance is made for
vessels damaged or molested, but not sunk. This figure is the highest
for which any sort of plausible argument could be adduced, rather than
a judicial estimate. I adhere to the estimate which I gave in _The
Economic Consequences of the Peace_.
I forbear to examine the claims of the other Allies. The details, so
far as they have been published, are given in Appendix No. 3.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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