A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
[71] M. Brenier, who has spent much time criticizing me, quotes
with approval (_The Times_, January 24, 1921) a French architect as
estimating the cost of reconstruction at an average of $2,500 per
house, and quotes also, without dissent, a German estimate that the
pre–war average was $1,200. He also states, in the same article, that
the number of houses destroyed was 304,191 and the number damaged
290,425, or 594,616 in all. Having pointed out the importance of not
overlooking sentiment in these questions, he then multiplies $2,500,
not by the number of houses but by the number of the _population_,
and arrives at an answer of $3,750,000,000. What is one to reply to
sentimental multiplication? What is the courteous retort to controversy
on these lines? (His other figures are clearly such a mass of
misprints, muddled arithmetic, confusion between hectares and acres
and the like, that, whilst an attack could easily make a devastated
area of them, it would be unfair to base any serious criticism on this
well–intentioned farrago. As a writer on these topics, M. Brenier is
about of the caliber of M. Raphaël–Georges Lévy.)
[72] M. Tardieu states that, on account of the subsequent rise in
prices, M. Loucheur’s estimate has proved, in terms of paper francs,
to be inadequate. But this is allowed for by my having converted paper
francs into dollars at the par of exchange.
[73] The Lens coal mines, which were the object of most complete
destruction, comprised 29 pits, and had, in 1913, 16,000 workmen with
an output of 4 million tons.
[74] I take these figures from M. Tardieu, who argues, most
illuminatingly, in alternate chapters, according to his thesis for the
time being, that reconstruction has hardly begun, and that it is nearly
finished.
[75] Francs are here converted at 2.20 to the gold mark and the £
sterling at the ratio of 1:20.
[76] This is exactly the figure of the estimate which I gave in _The
Economic Consequences of the Peace_ (p. 160). But I there added: “I
feel much more confidence in the approximate accuracy of the total
figure than its division between the different claimants.” This proviso
was necessary, as I had over–estimated the claims of France and
under–estimated those of the British Empire and of Italy.
[77] “Elle avait été le résultat d’un compromis assez pénible entre la
délégué français, l’honorable M. Dubois, et le représentant anglais,
Sir John Bradbury, depuis lors démissionnaire, qui voulait s’en tenir
au chiffre de cent quatre milliards et qui avait défendu la thèse du
gouvernement britannique avec une habileté passionnée.”
[78] The chief question of legitimate controversy in this connection
was that of the rate of exchange for converting paper francs into gold
marks.
[79] Made up of about £5,500,000 advanced by Great Britain, 772,000,000
francs by France, 96,000,000 francs by Belgium, 147,000,000 lire by
Italy, and 56,000,000 francs by Luxembourg.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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